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J Seismol (2008) 12:307321 DOI 10.1007/s10950-007-9083-x
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Current state of integrated earthquake simulation for earthquake hazard and disaster
Muneo Hori Tsuyoshi Ichimura
Received: 20 May 2007 / Accepted: 29 November 2007 / Published online: 23 February 2008 Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2007
Abstract This paper presents the current state of integrated simulation for earthquake hazard and disaster. This simulation takes advantage of the macromicro analysis method; this method estimates an earthquakes strong motion with high spatial and temporal resolution, using the bounding medium theory to obtain optimistic and pessimistic estimates of expected strong motion distribution and the singular perturbation expansion that results in an efcient multi-scale analysis. Integrated earthquake simulation calculates seismic responses for all structures in a target area, inputting simulated strong ground motion to a structure analysis method that is plugged into the system by means of a wrapper; a suitable method, linear or nonlinear, is chosen depending on the type of the structure. The results of all simulations are visualized so that residences and government ofcials can share a common recognition of earthquake hazard and disaster. Two examples of this integrated earthquake simulations are presented;
M. Hori (B)
Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Yayoi, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-0032, Japane-mail: [email protected]
T. IchimuraDepartment of Civil Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo Japan
one is made by plugging nonlinear structure analysis methods into the system, and the other is made for an actual city, the computer model of which is constructed with the help of available geographical information systems.
Keywords Integrated earthquake simulation
Stochastic modeling Multi-scale analysis
Seismic response analysis for structures
1 Introduction
For a given scenario of an earthquake, numerical simulation is playing a vital role to estimate possible earthquake hazard and disaster. In this paper, the earthquake hazard stands for a distribution of strong ground motion and the earthquake disasters damage or collapse of structures, which are located in a target area, together with the consequences, such as loss of human lives and impacts on the regional or national economy. The development of a system for the earthquake hazard and disaster simulation has been studied in earthquake engineering; see Hazus (2007) and Kawasaki Lab. (2007). Most of the systems developed calculate an index of strong ground motion using...