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Abstract
Economists have offered a plethora of studies examining various aspects of professional team sports. Such studies, though, often neglect the playoffs. Given the impact the post-season has on league revenue, as well as the utility generated for both participants and observers of professional sports, such neglect misses much of the story people wish to tell about sports. In an era of free agency and salary caps, teams must determine the optimal strategy for maximizing their probability of success. Is the best offense a good defense, or does defense win championships? The purpose of this paper is to fill in this gap in the literature by examining the relative effects of offense and defense on making and advancing in the playoffs.
Keywords: football, probability of success, salary cap
Introduction
Numerous sayings have been associated with professional sports. Among the most popular are "the best defense is a good offense" and "defense wins championships." On the one side, both observers and participants in team sports often note the primacy of defense. Although offensive showmanship is the subject of much adoration from fans, defense is often given credit for taking home a sport's ultimate prize. As "they" say, "Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships." Alternatively, the view exists that the best way to keep the other team from scoring is to keep the ball yourself. In this regard, having a strong offense not only results in points for your team, it can also keep the other team from scoring.
Such sayings lead one to wonder how teams should allocate resources. Teams in the National Football League face a salary cap and corresponding salary floor. In other words, teams are required to spend a minimum amount and are prevented from spending beyond a specific cap. How should these resources be allocated?
Assuming teams are motivated by winning,1 they should allocate their resources on the side of the ball that generates the highest return. Before moving on, we should also note that returns to NFL games are not all equal. Specifically, as noted by Leeds and Von Allmen (2004), a disproportionate share of league revenue is generated in the post-season. This perspective is echoed in the work of Berri, Schmidt, and Brook (2004). In a study of the...