Defining security in a changing Arctic: helping to prevent an Arctic security dilemma

THEMED SECTION: Arctic in the Anthropocene: sustainability in a new polar age

Introduction

In recent years, the international relevance of the Arctic region has increased due to anthropogenic climate change which is considered the primary cause of rapid warming and sea ice loss (IPCC 2014; UNFCCC 1992) opening the region to new threats and opportunities, and the growing global demand for commodities. Although complete access to the region is still impeded by the high costs of operating in extreme climate conditions and hostile environments, today the Arctic is considered to have great economic potential, as the U.S. Geological Survey estimates that it holds approximately 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids (Bird and others 2008: 4). In the same way, the ice retreat (with an annual mean extent of Arctic sea ice dropped between 1979 and 2012 by close to half a million km²per decade), is opening possibilities for navigation through new emerging sea routes, and greater availability of fishery resources (IPCC 2013). As a result, the Arctic is accumulating economic importance and geopolitical significance for Arctic states and international stakeholders. In view of these economic benefits, several academics (see Olesen 2014), and especially media commentators (The Economist 1843; Rosenthal 2012), have warned about the emergence of an 'Arctic race', a scenario in which state powers and other stakeholders will compete against each other in a scramble for territory and natural resources (Borgerson 2008).

While disputing this hypothesis, which in the authors' view does not take sufficient account of the degree of cooperation and institutionalisation achieved at the regional level, of which the adoption of regional sectoral agreements by Arctic States, the establishment of the permanent Arctic Council Secretariat (ACS) or the current Council's membership enlargement are all valuable examples; this article does not exclude the possibility for the regional stability to be further strengthened, especially when it comes to hard security issues. Still largely unaddressed as they are not predominant in the Arctic, they constitute an element of the broadened security concept that is gaining ground in the region and need therefore to be tackled since they represent a precondition for good governance, enhanced cooperation and regional economic...