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Introduction
The term Delphi refers to a town in ancient Greece in which the predictions of the god Apollo were transmitted to futurologists on Earth. As a result, Delphi has always been associated with the forecast (Landeta, 2006; Wakefield and Watson, 2014).
Nielsen and Thangadurai (2007) affirm that the Delphi method had its beginnings between 1940 and 1960, according to Landeta (2006) and Dalkey and Helmer (1963). Its origin is attributed to the RAND [research and development (R&D)] corporation at the end of the 1940s in Santa Monica, in a study that was published 12 years later. The method originated from a study of the Cold War to identify possible USA industrial objectives and their vulnerability to Soviet munitions (Fletcher and Marchildon, 2014; Rowe and Wright, 1999; Linstone and Turoff, 1975).
Linstone and Turoff (1975) gave additional details about the original Delphi Method. They explain that it was created to solve a problem in the US Air Force, to deal with a specific military issue and to forecast military potential, using a panel of professionals with experience in that field. (Linstone and Turoff, 1975, cited by Zeedick, 2012).
The Delphi method has had applications in various sectors, regions, countries and organizations around the world, with a marked emphasis on future studies in technology and innovation (Van der Duin, 2006; Castelló and Callejo, 2000). However, since its inception in the 1940s of the past century, the method has suffered changes in its methodology to such an extent that the applications presented in recent years correspond more to a “modified Delphi,” characterized by anonymity, the presentation of alternatives to consensus and a smaller number of rounds, among other aspects (Cabero, 2013).
The purpose of the article is to review the literature on the Delphi method, its characteristics and current applications through an analysis of recent most-cited scientific papers, with an emphasis on three axes, namely: the number of rounds used, stakeholder participation relevance or only academic experts’ participation and the possibility of using indicators or techniques different from those related to descriptive statistics. To this effect, the article is divided into several sections: the first presents the result of the initial literature review with the 10 papers with the highest citation and the 10 most recent papers...