Demand Forecasting and Capacity Management in Primary Care

Abstract

One of the goals of health care reform is to provide health care to an additional 46 million currently uninsured while decreasing costs by stressing prevention and access to primary care. Primary care providers are already in short supply with more and more medical school graduates choosing the more lucrative specialties. In 2009, Glabman reported that only 2% of fourth-year medical students planned to pursue careers in internal medicine. The greatest number of unfilled matched residencies in 2007 was in family medicine where the mean starting salary is $130,000. Primary care providers are traditionally measured and paid by the number of visits, yet there is necessary and time-consuming work for patients that is "invisible" to payers and management such as telephone calls, test results, prescription refills, advice, etc. The patient-centered medical home is an approach to care that responds to this crisis in primary care.