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A core challenge in the field of developmental psychopathology is the identification of risk factors and competencies that explain not only concurrent difficulties but also underlying developmental issues linked to long-term risk and resilience. The present study seeks to distinguish short- versus long-term predictors of substance use and abuse. Although a large body of developmentally focused research has examined predictors of alcohol and substance use in adolescence, the challenge of determining which teens will versus will not develop substance abuse problems in the longer term, beyond the early 20s transitional period, has received far less attention. Identifying unique predictors of adolescent use versus adult substance abuse problems from within early and middle adolescence has immense potential value in focusing prevention and intervention efforts.
With only a few exceptions noted below, much of the research that exists on adolescent-era predictors of substance use beyond adolescence extends to predictions only up through the early 20s. Yet, in the early 20s substance use levels remain notably high and still may be significantly driven by transient developmental and cultural factors (e.g., peer pressure, college drinking, etc.; Masten, Faden, Zucker, & Spear, 2008; Nelson, Van Ryzin, & Dishion, 2014; Schulenberg & Maggs, 2002). In contrast, it is longer term use that accounts for the most problems, with those abusing in their late 20s considered to be at a very high risk for lifelong patterns of substance abuse (Brook, Brook, Zhang, Cohen, & Whiteman, 2002).
Moffitt's recognition that adolescence-limited criminal behavior is in large part driven by social and developmental pressures unique to adolescence seems particularly relevant to distinguishing long- versus short-term substance use and abuse (Moffitt, 2017). Although Moffitt's analysis was applied to criminal behavior, factors she identifies, such as peer approval of illicit behavior, desire to seek out new experiences, and desire to establish autonomy by taking on “adultlike” behavior, all seem likely to also drive substance use during the adolescent/early adult period. If at least some adolescent criminal activity can arguably be considered as a partially adaptive response to normative social-developmental pressures (Moffitt, 2017), then this argument likely also applies to substance use as well; some adolescent substance use has even been linked to otherwise positive traits such as popularity (Allen, Porter, McFarland, Marsh, & McElhaney, 2005; Mayeux,...