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Raymond Kurzweil proposed seven stages in the "life cycle of a technology." Libraries can use the technology life cycle concept to determine when to invest in newer technologies. Kurzweil gave no criteria for determining what stage a technology had achieved in the life cycle. This article will present a set of criteria to evaluate new technologies within the framework of the life cycle, demonstrating their applicability using Kurzweil's example of audio technology and then applying the criteria to current e-book technology.
Technology is one of the foundations of today's library. Our catalogs have become databases while the venerable cards are shipped to the recycler or used as scratch paper. We process and deliver interlibrary loans via the Web along with an increasing number of journals and indexes. This transition forces libraries to make decisions about a plethora of new technologies on a daily basis. As an electronic engineer until 1993, I am especially interested in the relationship of technology to my new profession.
A model of the life cycle of a technology was proposed by Raymond Kurzweil in 1992. This model can help libraries determine whether a technology is appropriate to adopt. In this article, I will amplify Kurzweil's technology life cycle model and apply this improved model to determine the current state of e-books within Kurzweil's framework.
Background
Raymond Kurzweil, noted inventor and futurist, wrote "The Futurecast" column for Library Journal in the early 1990s. A three-part series in this column titled "The Future of Libraries" appeared from January through March of 1992. The first part of this series, "The Technology of the Book," listed seven stages in the life cycle of a technology:
1. Precursor
2. Invention
3. Development
4. Maturity
5. False Pretenders
6. Obsolescence
7. Antiquity
In the precursor stage, ideas about a new technology exist, but have not been implemented (e.g., DaVinci's helicopter). Invention gives the ideas concrete form. Development hones the technology into a practical form (e.g., automobile technology at the turn of the last century). Finally the technology reaches maturity and is practical and useful. Maturity can last for years, decades, or centuries depending on how well the technology meets the need for which it was invented.
As the mature technology ages, newer technologies arise to challenge...