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Key Words earthquake preparedness, complexity, critical transitions, premonitory seismicity patterns
FOREWORD
1. Earthquake prediction is pivotal both for reduction of the damage from earthquakes and for fundamental understanding of lithosphere dynamics. That twofold goal, usual for prediction research, brings up the key questions considered here: (a) What predictions are already possible? (b) How can damage from earthquakes be reduced on the basis of such predictions, given their limited accuracy? (c) What fundamental knowledge has been gained in earthquake prediction research? The common underlying question is, what comes next?
2. This problem is of urgent practical importance because earthquakes pose a rapidly growing threat to survival and sustainable development of our civilization. This is due to the well-known interrelated developments: proliferation of radioactive waste disposals, high dams, nuclear power plants, lifelines, and other objects whose damage poses an unacceptable risk; self-destruction of megacities; destabilization of the environment; and growing socio-economic volatility of the global village. For all of these reasons, seismic risk has escalated also in numerous regions of low seismicity. Today, a single earthquake may take up to a million lives, cause material damage up to $10^sup 12^, raze a megacity, trigger a global economic depression, render a large territory uninhabitable, and destabilize the military balance in a region.
Earthquake prediction is necessary to undertake disaster preparedness measures, reducing the damage from the earthquakes. This requires that the accuracy of prediction be known, but, contrary to common belief, a timely prediction of low accuracy may be very useful.
3. Earthquake prediction is necessary also for fundamental understanding of the dynamics of the lithosphere, particularly in the timescales of 10^sup 2^ years and less. So far, this problem is in the same stage as the theory of gravity was between T. Brahe and J. Kepler: the study of heuristic regularities that are necessary to develop a fundamental theory.
4. Here we review the research that extends to formally defined prediction algorithms and to their tests by advance prediction. Being a part of much broader efforts in earthquake prediction, this is presently most essential both for damage reduction and for understanding the lithosphere. Methodologically, this research integrates theoretical modeling and analysis of observations.
5. Why was this topic suggested for the prefatory chapter of the Annual...