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Abstract Taking into account the regional carrying capacity, the population capacity and optimum population of Binzhou City from 2007 to 2017 under certain economic, resource and environmental conditions were calculated based on PEER model. The results show that the population capacity of Binzhou City during 2007 -2017 ranged from 6.03 million to 6.43 million, and ecological optimum population was between 5.05 million and 5.34 million. The actual population of the city was between 3.74 million and 3.94 million. The impact of the " two-child" policy on population growth was small, and there was still room for population growth. The population pressure index was greater than 0.7 and less than 1, showing that economic and resource population carrying capacity had certain surplus but were still not optimistic. Environmental pressure index was relatively high, and population carrying capacity was low.
Key words Ecological optimum population; Population capacity; PEER model; Binzhou City
Binzhou City is located in the plain of northern Shandong and the convergence zone of High-efficiency Ecological Economic Zone of the Yellow River Delta, Blue Economic Zone of Shandong Peninsula, and Bohai Economic Circle, and Provincial Capital Economic Circle. It is the north gate of Shandong Province. It has jurisdiction over four counties, two districts and one city.
1Selection of research methods and model construction
1.1 Population capacity and optimum population According to the definition of population capacity given by United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), population capacity is the number of people supported by a country or region using the energy and other natural resources as well as intelligence and technology under the conditions of material living standards in line with social and cultural norms in a foreseeable period111, namely the largest population that the environment can accommodate. Optimum population generally refers to the optimal population that can be supported by a region under certain goals and conditions 21. Its size depends not only on the balance between the various natural economic carrying capacities and the demand of regional population for these carrying capacities in a region but also on different research objectives131.
1.2 Calculation model Seen from many studies at home and abroad, research on optimum population has received increasing attention from the perspective of comprehensive carrying capacity. Based on the...