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Abstract [Objective] The study aimed to predict the peak water level in Pearl River Estuary under the background of sea level rise. [ Method] The changing trends of peak water level at Denglongshan station and Hengmen station were analyzed firstly on the basis of regression models, and then sea level rise in Pearl River Estuary in 2050 was predicted to estimate the 1-in-50-year peak water level in the same year. [ Result] Regression analyses showed that the increasing rate of peak water level over past years was 6.3 mm/a at Denglongshan station and 5. 8 mm/a at Hengmen station. In addition, if sea level will rise by 20, 30 and 60 cm respectively in 2050, it was predicted that the 1 -in-50-year peak water level will reach 3.04, 3.14 and 3.44 mat Denglongshan station, and 3.19, 3.29 and 3.59 m at Hengmen station separately. [Conclusion] The estimation of peak water level in Pearl River Estuary could provide theoretical references for water resources planning.
Key words Sea level rise; Pearl River Estuary; Peak water level; China
The Pearl River Estuary at south of the Tropic of Cancer has a warm and humid climate in the whole year, with an annual mean precipitation of 1 400 -2 500 mm and annual average temperature of about 22 t. With the rapid development of economy, the Pearl River Estuary has become one of the chief fragile regions affected by future sea level rise in China due to low and flat land, crisscrossed rivers, dense population and centralized towns. In history, sea level rise aggravated typhoon storm surge, rose water level and affected the flood control and drainage systems of coastal cities at different levels, bringing great loss to people's lives and economic construction in Pearl River Estuary areas. On September 24 , 2008 , sea level in the coastal areas of Guangdong Province was above 200 mm higher than the normal value. The hundred-year high tide level resulted from a rare storm surge caused by a super typhoon " Hagupit" . Moreover, the river water overflowed its banks, and embankments were damaged; millions of people were affected by the disaster, and the direct economic loss exceeded about ten billion yuan. Here, we firstly analyzed the changing trends of...