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The rise or decline of ethno-religious conflict in Southeast Asia will largely depend on the extent to which Indonesia, as the "pivotal state" in the region, is able to manage its own democratic transition. In the Indonesian case, the rise of ethnoreligious conflict is inextricably linked to Indonesia's chronic ongoing national crisis - a crisis arising, in the main, from the weakness of the state and radical decentralization that is not working well. In Indonesia, as elsewhere in Southeast Asia, ethno-religious conflict has also been spurred by the conjunction of economic and social marginalization with significant demographic change. External factors (particularly that of Islam as a potent mobilizing force both within and beyond state borders) have also exacerbated such conflict.
Introduction
In the 1960s, the renowned American anthropologist, Clifford Geertz, in his seminal work, "The Integrative Revolution" concluded: "The havoc wreaked both upon themselves and others by those modern (or semimodern) states that did passionately seek to become primordial rather than civil political communities... have only strengthened the reluctance publicly to advance race, language, religion and the like as bases for the definition of a terminal community."' Yet, contrary to that conclusion, and forty years later, the Southeast Asian region contains a plethora of groups who profess a commitment to separatism, or the establishment of states on an ethno-religious basis. In accounting for the present rise or decline of ethno-religious conflict in Southeast Asia, this overview will focus on the following factors:
the character of the state and its role and capacity in ameliorating or exacerbating such conflict;2
the role of local factors (ethnicity, religion, and the distribution of resources) in the durability of conflict; and
the significance of the external dimension, particularly the challenge emanating from Islamic religious revivalism in the persistence of conflict.
Indonesia
In all its reports, the International Crisis Group (IGC)3 has emphasized how the burgeoning separatist and ethno-religious conflicts in Indonesia are inextricably linked to Indonesia's chronic ongoing crisis - in essence, the weakness and incapacity of the state. It notes that Indonesia is: "A state crippled by economic crisis; radical decentralization that has shaken up government structures but is not working well; a military whose cohesion and discipline have declined and a bureaucracy and legal system riddled with...