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Abstract
Cashew is one of the most important dollar earning crops of the country. The quantity of export of cashew kernel had registered a growth of 5.71% per annum. This was made possible both due to increased export to countries of import and changes in composition of India's cashew kernel exports to various destinations. The paper quantifies the changing structure of cashew kernel exports in order to understand the dynamics of changes and the growth rate analysis. The growth rate analysis reveals that, UAE shows the highest growth rate and the countries like USA, Netherland, UK show the negative growth rates. The markov chain model was used to assess the transition probabilities for the major cashew kernel export from India. The result revealed that, the country USA was the highest probability of reduction (0.87) compare to all other countries. The forecasted values for, the countries UAE and 'other countries' show the increasing trend and the countries like USA, UK, Netherland, Japan and France show the decreasing trend.
Keywords: Probability transition matrix, direction of trade, markov chain analysis, forecasting, cashew kernel
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Any crop/commodity which earns valuable foreign exchange is of much importance for the economic growth of the country. Export behaviour and its trend analysis are of much importance from the points of view of countries economy. A no. of studies are there in literature with respect to export and trend analysis on different crops/commodities; among these the studies conducted by Ajjan et al. (1998) on senna and periwinkle, Mandanna et al. (2002) on tobacco export, Sadavatti (2006) on Basmati rice, Umesh et al. (2005) and Velavan (2004) on cashew are few to mention. Cashew, a native of Eastern Brazil introduced to India by Portuguese. Cashew is one of the India's foreign exchange earners and the second biggest dollar earner (CEPCI, 2012). India is the largest producer and exporter of cashew kernels in the world. Over 65% of the world export of cashew kernels is accounted for by India. India's share in the world raw nut production accounts to about 25% (Cashew Bulletin, 2010). In India, cashew cultivation now covers a total area of 0.70 million hectares of land, producing over 0.40 million M.T. of raw cashew nuts annually...