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ABSTRACT: Unbeknownst to many, Lethal Autonomous Weapons (LAWS) have existed for decades, but they have largely been defensive and anti-material. However, as increasingly advanced defensive LAWS, such as complex swarming systems, become more prominent, states will assuredly develop ways to counter, including offensive LAWS. Certainly, the near-term developmental focus of such systems will be on operational environments in which there are relatively low risk of injury or death to civilians or untoward incidents in general, but it is a matter of when, not if, these systems will be widely used in direct combat situations. As such, LAWS are a frequent topic of debate among states and human rights organizations with many viewing LAWS as killer robots that should be banned indefinitely. But as autonomy increases in civil society, particularly through applications with life or death consequences, like driverless cars and robotic surgery, the public's perception of risk and human/machine interaction will likely change. Whether that attitude change will translate to widespread acceptance, or indifference, of LAWS is yet to be known. Ultimately, this article explores the developmental history and trajectory of defensive and offensive LAWS in all areas of the military, and seeks to explain why an outright ban is unlikely.
CITATION: Chris Jenks, The Gathering Swarm: The Path to Increasingly Autonomous Weapons Systems, 57 Jurimetrics J. 341-359 (2017).
If we go on waiting upon events, how much shall we throw away of resources now available for our security and the maintenance of peace? How many friends will be alienated, how many potential allies shall we see go one by one down the grisly gulf? How many times will bluff succeed until behind bluff ever-gathering forces have accumulated reality?
-Winston S. Churchill1
In December 2016, the States Parties to the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW)2 agreed to continue and formalize discussions on weapons systems that are capable of selecting and engaging targets without further human intervention, otherwise known as lethal autonomous weapons (LAWS).3 As a result, a Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) will meet in 2017 to "explore and agree on possible recommendations on options related to emerging technologies in the area of LAWS."4 The Campaign to Stop Killer Robots, an international coalition,5 claims that the upcoming GGE meetings should lead to a...