Content area
Full Text
This paper argues DPRK instability narratives that the Kim regime will collapse like the Soviet bloc are misguided and that US foreign policy founded upon them has at times led to a 'wait and see' approach sometimes referred to as strategic patience. One source of instability narratives, hereditary succession in North Korea, has occurred twice successfully, with leaders choosing their successor and being invested in their succession in a way that may not occur if the successor were not family. By comparing Kim Il Sung and Mao Ze Dong's succession attempts, this paper hypothesizes that the longer time a successor has to consolidate power prior to succession, herein referred to as the "power incubation period" (PIP), the more likely their regime's survival. This contributes to both the literature on authoritarian regime succession and foreign policy towards those regimes by demonstrating that the temporal aspect of regime consolidation takes place both before and after succession and that in cases of hereditary succession, the perceptional variant of family ties allows for a longer PIP prior to succession.
Key Words: DPRK, Succession, Sudden Collapse, Power Incubation Period, US Foreign Policy
(ProQuest: ... denotes non-USASCII text omitted.)
I. Introduction
Over the span of 30 years, multiple US administrations have faced the DPRK nuclear program challenge with little success. President Clinton (1993-2001) oversaw the agreed framework which collapsed under President Bush (2002-2009). President Bush saw the first DPRK nuclear test take place and produced little diplomatic headway via the 6 party talks. President Obama's (2009-2016) administration negotiated the Leap-Day agreement which promptly collapsed, resulting in reticence to bargain with the DPRK that became known as Strategic Patience. President Trump's (2016-2020) approach departed the path of his predecessors with first threats and bravado that nearly precipitated war and then rapprochement and summit diplomacy, offering photo opportunities but little more. All the while the DPRK nuclear and ballistic missile programs have made significant headway with multiple provocative tests. The challenge and threat the DPRK now presents to the Biden administration (2020-present) is as serious as ever.
The DPRK remains one of the most serious and complex recurring international political issues. Be it famine, human rights violations, nuclear tests, counterfeit currency, sinking of ships, shelling of islands, ballistic missile launches, or cybercrimes,...