Content area
Full text
(Received 12 April 2020; revised 11 December 2020; accepted 24 February 2021; first published online 08 June 2022)
Abstract
This article analyzes the impact of Augusto Pinochet's autocracy on the Chilean economy. The study compares outcomes under Pinochet's leadership with those in a synthetic counterfactual made of a weighted average of countries with similar characteristics. It finds that, relative to the control, Chilean income per capita greatly underperformed for at least the first fifteen years after Pinochet's coup. The results are robust to extending the pool of donor countries and expanding the pretreatment period by switching data sets to capture potential heterogeneity of effects. The evidence suggests that Chile's remarkable economic growth during the period 1985-1997 did not depend on Pinochet's autocracy. These results further bring into question the effectiveness of the regime to enhance economic growth and the narrative of the Chilean miracle.
Keywords: autocracy; economic growth; synthetic control
JEL: O11; O43; P51
Resumen
Este artículo analiza el impacto de la dictadura de Augusto Pinochet en la economía chilena. El estudio compara resultados bajo el liderazgo de Augusto Pinochet con aquellos en un control sintético compuesto de un promedio ponderado de países con características similares. Se encuentra que, en comparación con el control, la renta per cápita chilena presenta un rendimiento significativamente menor por lo menos por los primeros quince anos después del golpe de Pinochet. Los resultados son robustos al extender la seleccion de la muestra de países y al expandir el periodo anterior al tratamiento cambiando el conjunto de datos para capturar la potencial heterogeneidad de efectos. La evidencia sugiere que el notable crecimiento economico de Chile durante el periodo 1985-1997 no dependio de la dictadura de Pinochet. Estos resultados cuestionan, además, la efectividad del régimen para estimular el crecimiento economico y la narrativa del milagro chileno.
Palabras clave: autocracia; crecimiento economico; control sintético
Despite the ongoing march of democracy around the world, how political institutions affect human well-being remains open to debate (Besley and Persson 2019). Boettke (2004) claims that autocracies provide a more efficient mechanism to encourage development through their credible and binding commitment to limiting government predation. If leaders do not establish and signal a credible commitment to the population, then reform measures will lack trust and business...