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Jordan is a geographic absurdity burdened by natural-resource scarcity and demographic uncertainty. haphazardly drawn by British cartogra- phers in 1921, this arid hinterland east of the River Jordan has little water and no oil. ever reliant on foreign aid, the ruling monarchy reigns over a fractious society split between its traditional base of support, mostly tribal east Bankers, and an urban Palestinian majority that has long been excluded from power. Yet unlike the rulers of its more power- ful Arab neighbors, the monarchy of the hashemites-a clan from the hejaz region of the Arabian Peninsula whom the British made rulers of what was then called Transjordan-has never been toppled.
The palace's confidence in this record of stability did not serve it well during the Arab Spring, however. Instead of grasping the historic character of this upsurge of popular unrest and acting accordingly, the regime contented itself with making only the shallowest of political reforms. Despite facing unprecedented opposition, the forces gathered around the throne of King Abdullah II appear to believe that they can re- tain power as in the past. Yet as political discontent and economic diffi- culties deepen, this has become a shaky assumption. Since ascending to the throne in 1999, the king has never faced such doubt about his future.
The January 2013 parliamentary election was supposed to induce the opposite conclusion. One of the cleanest on record, the election book- ended a two-year royal campaign of democratic reforms, which began after weekly protests demanding popular representation and an end to corruption broke out in January 2011.1 After thousands of demonstra- tions and a raft of constitutional amendments, however, the political scene of early 2013 looks much like it did before the Arab Spring. The parliament remains a toothless body, created by an electoral law so tilted to favor conservatives that it triggered a boycott by Islamists and other opposition figures. The kingship and its government still dictate all ma- jor policy stances, and the security apparatus continues to loom over civic life with overarching authority.
If Jordan's polity remains mired in stasis, its society does not: Never before have so many Jordanians been willing to express so much hostility toward the monarchy. In a rare moment, opposition has mobilized across deep...