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ABSTRACT - In the next decades, aging farmers in the United States will make decisions that affect almost 1 billion acres of land. The future of this land will become more uncertain as farm transfer becomes more difficult, potentially changing the structure of agriculture through farm consolidation, changes in farm ownership and management, or taking land out of production. The Great Plains Population and Environment Project interviewed farmers and their spouses between 1997 and 1999. Farm Family Survey participants were ambiguous about their plans to leave farming, transfer land to others, and even long-term land use. largely due to concerns about the continued economic viability of farming. Participants living far from metropolitan areas expected to sell or rent to other farmers, while those near residential real-estate markets expected to sell to developers. Delays in planning for retirement and succession were common, further threatening the success of intergenerational transitions.
Key Words: land use, land transfer, farm succession, farm exit, agriculture, retirement
INTRODUCTION
In nations as widely scattered as Finland, Australia, Japan, and the United States, farmland transfer is an increasingly important issue (e.g.. Baker et al. n.d.; Keating 1996; Pesquin et al. 1999; Duffy et al. 2002; Pietola et al. 2003; Alston 2004; Tevis 2004; Hildenbrand and Hennon 2005). The use of almost 1 billion acres of land in the United States is at issue. Most of that land forms a broad swath through the middle of the nation in the Midwest and Great Plains (Vesterby and Krupa 2001). Land transfer, aging, and retirement are inseparable issues for farmers (Kimhi and Lopez 1999), and the farm population in the developed world is steadily aging. The average age of farmers in the United States rose from 48 in 1940 to 55.3 in 2002, with over one quarter aged 65 and older (compared to 2.4% in the general labor force) (USDA 2002; USDA 2004). Farmers' retirement plans have implications for the future use of land in large portions of the United States and for rural residents and communities.
The continuing trend for increasing age of farm operators over the past several decades is underlain by cohort aging, lower exit rates among older operators, and fewer young entrants (Gale 1996. 2003). Older operators may continue beyond retirement...