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Harold Macmillan's 'wind of change' address has gone down in history as one of the great visionary speeches in post-war history, and perhaps the finest of Macmillan's career. As well as signalling a major policy change in respect of African decolonization, it declared that South Africa was now so far out of step with the trajectory of world events that Britain could no longer be counted upon to lend support to apartheid in the international arena. Macmillan's speech demonstrated a sweeping grasp of historical circumstance. It was timely in its assessment of contemporary realities. Its staging was dramatic, and its formal construction and delivery magnificent. Yet the power of the address was vitiated by the broad realization that Britain was a declining force in Africa. The speech amounted to concession dressed up as an act of statesmanship, an attempt to regain some sense of domestic control and direction in respect of external events that were no longer subject to Britain's mastery.
The significance of Macmillan's speech had more to do with its recognition of already existing forces than its originality or its grasp of the future. Indeed, the central message about the force of African nationalism was already a truism when Macmillan delivered it - and an understatement at that.1 Neither the 'wind of change' metaphor, nor the sentiments it described, were novel. Stanley Baldwin had used a similar phrase to describe the growing forces of nationalism round the world in 1934.2 In 1957, Macmillan had himself observed that the growing nationalisms of Asia and Africa, which had been 'but a ripple', was now 'almost a tidal wave' that had to be guided into 'broad and safe channels' lest it turned into communism.3 His message in 1960 was an elaboration of this idea in the specifically African context.
In South African historiography, the 'wind of change' speech is seldom discussed, though routinely noted in passing. One reason is that Macmillan's visit is compacted into a dramatic series of events. The year 1960 began with Prime Minister Hendrik Verwoerd's surprise announcement that a referendum would be held later in the year to decide whether South Africa should become a republic.4 Macmillan's 'wind of change' speech...