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Introduction
The spread of invasive destructive pests has been causing damage to the environment as well as agricultural production, with consequent socio-economic impacts that need to be confronted by the public, policy-makers, governments and international agencies (Vitousek et al., 1997; Pimentel et al., 2000; Poland and Mccullough, 2006; Kovacs et al., 2010; Aljaryian and Kumar, 2016; Hulme, 2017; Staentzel et al., 2019). Recent high profile examples include emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) in the USA (Poland and Mccullough, 2006), tomato pinworm (Tuta absoluta (Meyrick)) across the world (Biondi et al., 2018), brown marmorated stink bug (Halyomorpha halys (Stål)) in the USA (Kistner, 2017; Kriticos et al., 2017) and fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith)) in Africa (Goergen et al., 2016) and Asia (Baloch et al., 2020; Li et al., 2020). Being able to accurately estimate the potential geographical ranges under current conditions and estimate how they might shift with global warming between now and 2100 will enable mitigation strategies for such pests to be better informed and prepared (Kriticos et al., 2013).
As climates warm, empirical evidence on herbivorous insects indicates a higher frequency of outbreaks for some species (Ayres and Lombardero, 2000; Logan et al., 2003), expansion of geographical range (Battisti et al., 2005; Engelkes et al., 2008; Bebber et al., 2013), phenological asynchrony between some plant hosts and herbivores (Singer and Parmesan, 2010; Foster et al., 2013) and increasing prevalence of insect viral vectors and plant disease epidemics (Kriticos et al., 2020). However, some consequences of climate change for herbivores are unpredictable due to cryptic biological characteristics (Deutsch et al., 2008; Jaric et al., 2019), resistant responses to global warming (due to behaviour, physiological fitness or immigration) (Li et al., 2016) and changes in interactions between trophic levels (Furlong and Zalucki, 2017). Thus, while there are general patterns (Sutherst et al., 2007), there may be uncertainty in how an individual invasive pest's geographical range might shift due to global warming (Chaves, 2016; Gillard et al., 2017; Hulme, 2017).
The apple buprestid, Agrilus mali Matsumura (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), was originally described as restricted to the Russian Far East...