Content area
Full Text
ABSTRACT
ADDITIONAL INDEX WORDS: Climate change, sea-level rise, vulnerability assessment, coastal typology.
INTRODUCTION
With the development of both climate change impact assessments and coastal zone management (CZM), the vulnerability of coastal zones to sea-level rise has become an important focus for research. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) common methodology for the assessment of vulnerability to accelerated sea-level rise (The Common Methodology) (IPCC CZMS, 1992) denned an era in terms of vulnerability assessments (e.g., CALLAGHAN, 1994; LEATHERMAN, 1997; MIMURA, 1999; NICHOLLS, 1995; NICHOLLS and LEATHEKMAN, 1995; NICHOLLS and MIMURA, 1998; WATSON et al., 1998; SURVAS, 2004). However, the interpretation of the results of the national studies are frequently constrained because they were not conducted with the goal of providing a representative sample, and used a range of different methods, scenarios, and assumptions. The scope of regional to global studies of vulnerability is also frequently constrained (e.g., HOOZEMANS et al, 1993; NICHOLLS and HOOZEMANS, 2004).
Addressing this issue, the DINAS-COAST (Dynamic and Interactive Assessment of National, Regional and Global Vulnerability of Coastal Zones to Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise) Project has developed a top-down modeling effort to complement the information developed by local and national studies (DINAS-COAST, 2004). The overall goal is to produce a regional- to global-scale integrated, dynamic, and interactive tool, DIVA, that enables its users to produce quantitative data on a range of coastal vulnerability indicators for userselected climatic and socioeconomic scenarios and adaptation policies. In line with existing studies, vulnerability is defined within the DINAS-COAST project as the "degree of incapability to cope with the consequences of climate change and sea-level rise" (IPCC CZMS, 1992; KLEIN and NICHOLLS, 1999).
Conducting a global scale assessment of vulnerability to sea-level rise requires a wide range of physical, ecological, and socioeconomic data and information on the world's coasts. However, while the coast is intuitively recognized as a distinct feature of the earth's surface, it is difficult to represent in more formal terms (BARTLETT et al, 1997). The nonlinearity of processes within the coastal system, particularly in the context of interaction of energy, sediment, and spatial scale produce a complex physical environment. On this dynamic physical system, social values, economic developments, and political forces fixed through space are imposed (DE GROOT and ORFORD,...