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Received: 07 March., 2018 Revised: 20 March, 2018 Accepted: 24 March, 2018
ABSTRACT
In this study, the Box-Jenkins methodology has been applied to build Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for monthly arrival of Rohu fish in Jammu region of J&K state. The values ADF and Durbin Watson statistics were -3.65·· and 2.11 respectively. Among the ARMA(1,1), ARIMA(1,1,1), ARMA(2,2), ARMA(2,1), ARMA(1,2), ARIMA(2,1,1) ARIMA(1,1,2), ARIMA(1,1,3), ARIMA(2,1,2), ARIMA(2,2,2), the best model obtained was ARMA (2, 2) on the basis of significance of model and parameters. The values of R2 MAPE and -2 loglikelihood were 0.74, 0.70, 4.23 and 473.80, respectively. The AIC and SBIC of selected model were 483.01 and 459.51.
Keywords: Box-Jenkins approach, AIC, SBIC, ARIMA, forecasting
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Fisheries and aquaculture provide direct and indirect employment to over 500 million people across the world. According to Food and Agriculture organization (FAO) of the United Nations, the total number of commercial fishermen and fish farmer is estimated to be 38 million. Fishing in India is a major industry in its coastal states, employing over 14 million people. Fish production in India has increased more than tenfold since its independence in 1947. According to the Food and Agriculture organization (FAO) of the United Nations, fish output in India doubled between 1990 and 2010. India is a major supplier of fish in the world and account for 4.4 per cent of global fish production.
The J&K state is blessed with plenty of aquatic resources in the form of rivers, ponds, reservoirs and wetlands. Since last few decades, fish has been an important food item for the inhabitants of the state. The state has 27,781 km length of river/streams which facilitates fish farming of more than 40 million tonnes of fish. During the year 2012-13, 2 lakh quintals fish production was recorded and revenue receipts from fisheries was ... 520.33 lakh (economic survey of J&K 2013-14). As per livestock census 2003 of J&K state, the total fishermen population was around 31,000. It is presently estimated to be 91,984. The fish catch which was 1, 84,667 quintals in 2000-01, has reached to 1, 99,500 quintals in 2012-13. During the year 2012-13, 2 lakh quintals fish production was recorded and revenue receipts from fisheries were...