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INTRODUCTION
The history of climate extremes, especially drought, is not new in Ethiopia. Records of drought in Ethiopia date back to 250 BC and since then they have been a recurring phenomenon (Kiros 1991; Edossa et al. 2010). Recent studies have shown that the frequency of drought has increased over the past few decades, especially in the lowlands (Lautze et al. 2003; Viste et al. 2012). Major droughts occurred in 1957–1958, 1964–1966, 1972–1974, 1982–1984, 1987–1988, 1990, 1999, 2000, 2002–2003, 2006, 2009 and 2011 (Edossa et al. 2010; Degefu & Bewket 2015).
The greatest losses of life associated with drought in Ethiopia occurred in 1888, 1957–1958, 1972–1973 and 1983–1984, affecting as many as one million people (Degefu & Bewket 2015). Similarly, the 1972–1973, 2006 and 2008 droughts caused the death of 30% of the livestock population in Tigray and Wollo and several thousands of livestock in Southern Ethiopia (Degefu & Bewket 2015). The greatest number of affected people was 14.2 million in 2002, who needed emergency food assistance (EEPRI 2003 in Bewket 2012).
Ethiopia is an agricultural and agro-pastoral country and its economy is mainly dependent on rain-fed agriculture. Chronic food insecurity affects 10% of the population, even in average rainfall years. Future climate variability is expected to worsen these conditions. About a century ago, the frequency of droughts used to be once every 10–15 years but recent records indicate an increased frequency of once every five years or even less (Edossa et al. 2010; Block 2008 in Degefu & Bewket 2015).
Viste et al. (2012), in their vast and comprehensive work on drought and precipitation variability in Ethiopia, have shown that rainfalls are highly variable and drought conditions are common in Ethiopia at both seasonal and annual time scales, and concluded that Ethiopia as a whole is particularly prone to droughts. Ethiopia has a predominantly rain-fed agricultural system and rainfall is a crucial factor in determining food production. Farmers indicate the erratic nature of rainfall as a primary cause of food insecurity and vulnerability. In Ethiopia, drought is commonly followed by famine to such an extent that, although famine may have many other causes, the two terms have become almost synonymous.
In spite of the many efforts made by the Ethiopian Government to develop strategic...