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Nat Hazards (2014) 71:11811194 DOI 10.1007/s11069-013-0656-4
ORIGINAL PAPER
Huafeng Xu Bin Liu Zhigeng Fang
Received: 17 January 2013 / Accepted: 18 March 2013 / Published online: 28 March 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013
Abstract Mining subsidence destroys environment seriously and is difcult to forecast because the parameters in prediction model are difcult to obtain. As there are many uncertainties in mining subsidence, we forecast it by grey prediction model. Traditional GM (1,1) model predict for a time series. In this paper, the panel data are studied and are viewed as a sequence in which elements are matrix based on cross-sectional data, and the mean sequence of row vector GM (1,1) model, mean sequence of column vector GM (1,1) model and the cell volume sequence GM (1,1) model are established, respectively. Combining these grey models, we build prediction model of cross-sectional data matrix sequence. Thus, the scope of grey prediction has been expanded, and grey forecasting theory has been enriched. Using the newly built predictive models, we study the land deformation due to mining of Pingdingshan coal mine in Henan Province. Practical verication and model accuracy test show that the grey model can make accurate predictions, with a good agreement between the predictive value and actual value. It can provide effective and accurate information and also can provide an important reference for the reclamation planning of surface environment.
Keywords Grey system theory Prediction model Matrix sequence Land subsidence
H. Xu Z. Fang
College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, Chinae-mail: [email protected]
Z. Fange-mail: [email protected]
H. Xu
College of Science, Henan University of Urban Construction, Pingdingshan 467036, China
B. Liu (&)
College of Information and Management Science, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, Chinae-mail: [email protected]
New grey prediction model and its application in forecasting land subsidence in coal mine
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1 Introduction
Land subsidence is a geological result of internal and external forces on the Earth crust surfaces. Its generation mechanism is complex and volatile. Land subsidence has many different manifestations such as vertical deformation and horizontal displacement. Nonlinear and dynamic characteristics are reected in the time and space. It is difcult to reveal its internal law by traditional methods and techniques. When local coal seam...