Content area
Full text
Abstract
The Academy Awards present a unique opportunity to explore voter preferences. Every year the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences vote for the Best Picture of the Year. There are many influences to their decision. This study seeks to survey and weigh these influences. This paper analyzes the previous forty years of Best Picture nominations for characterizations including personnel, genre, marketing and records in other award competitions. Using a logistic regression model, each variable's effect on the odds of a given film winning the Best Picture Award is estimated. This paper also calculates the odds for previous nominees and compares those odds to the films' actual record at the Oscars.
I. Introduction
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences annually presents awards for excellence to the previous year's films, filmmakers, actors, artists and technicians. The Academy has presented these awards since 1929, and so the awards carry a long history of tradition. An Academy Award, also known as an Oscar, is a mark of distinguished accomplishment. It comes with instant recognition for the recipient who in turn reaps the immediate rewards of publicity, fanfare, and an increase in demand for one's ability or product. The following study attempts to create a model for predicting the winner of the Academy Award for Best Picture.
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences consists of 6,000 motion picture professionals. In January, members nominate five individuals or films in every category with which they are concerned. For example, only directors nominate individuals for Best Director. All members nominate for the Best Picture award. After the Academy announces the five leading candidates in each category, the Academy sends final ballots to all Academy members, who must view every film and vote in every category. The winners are announced at the Award Ceremony, which has become one of the most watched television events in the world. (Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, 2003)
The Oscar for Best Picture is the crown-jewel of the Academy Awards. A list of previous winners is a roll call of the greatest films ever made. Thirty-three of the films on the American Film Institute's 100 Greatest Films were Academy Award Best Picture Winners. Seventy-five of the films were Academy...