POTENTIAL THREATS TO NATIONAL SECURITY

Abstract

National security is a public good that must be provided equally to all citizens of a state. Constant and sometimes concerted pressure is exerted on it, from a multitude of threats different in nature and intensity. Threats are of several kinds: symmetric, asymmetric, conventional, unconventional and hybrid. States act permanently, constantly, continuously and often concertedly to limit the effects of security threats on the lives and activities of their citizens. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]

Headnote

National security is a public good that must be provided equally to all citizens of a state. Constant and sometimes concerted pressure is exerted on it, from a multitude of threats different in nature and intensity. Threats are of several kinds: symmetric, asymmetric, conventional, unconventional and hybrid. States act permanently, constantly, continuously and often concertedly to limit the effects of security threats on the lives and activities of their citizens.

Keywords: national security, security threat, globalization, regional integration, economic crisis, political crisis, climate changes.

1. Preliminary considerations

National security defines all the conditions conducive to life and work of many people in shelter from threats that may cause physical or mental detriment of individuals, groups and communities of people, or even society as a whole1.

Of course, the effects of security threats can not be removed completely, but can be limited only if we adopt coherent, concerted, systematic and permanent preventive measures on all components of existence and manifestation of national security.

According to the Copenhagen School2, security has the following components: social, economic, political, military and environmental. Different security threats, from the conventional to the hybrid ones exercise their influence on these components, disturbing people's life and activity. Also, most specialists in the field of national, regional or international security consider that the most frequent security threats are: international terrorism, organized crime, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, fragility of the international financial system, regional conflicts and state failure3.

However, in my opinion, to these threats we should add the following phenomena and processes, human acts and activities: privatization of strategically important national enterprises; globalization; climate changes and crises of all types (from the economic to the social ones) occurring nationally, regionally and internationally.

The above phenomena and processes must be considered threats to national security for the following reasons:

- frequently, they affect national security and all its components through the negative effects they generate;

- they always serve systematically and constantly the strategic interests of state and non state actors which support them through all legal and sometimes illegal methods, techniques and instruments and not national interests;

- they amplify and facilitate the effects of security threats (conventional, non conventional, symmetrical, asymmetrical, hybrid4) national states are constantly faced with;

- they affect human security directly and indirectly, through the negative effects they generate at the level of human groups and communities forming a national state;

- they possess all the characteristics defining a security threat.

In fact, a security threat is a fact, an event, a phenomenon or a process, an act or an activity affecting the normal life and activity of a human group, community or society and also the relationships between them. In fact, the security threat leads to the emergence and manifestation of malfunctions in human society with a negative effect on the physical and psychological integrity of its members.

2. Globalization - a potential threat to security

According to widespread belief, globalization corresponds to the generalization of geographical interconnections between products, businesses, markets and factors of production (labor, capital, information), of which an increasing share is created or available in an increasing number of countries and especially more and more in the developing countries. This perception, in a way, gives a plausible explanation of the development of international trade, training a large equity market and increase the number and weight of transnational firms in the global economy.

"Globalization means a multitude of social and economic transformations made by mankind nowadays, generated by the impact of transcontinental monetary and financial flows on the characteristics of social interactions. Globalization refers to the transmutation in the structure and organization of human societies which resulted in extensive dissociation and polarization of nationstates, or at least what's leftof them today, at the beginning of the third millennium"5. In a world becoming increasingly interdependent, economic, political and military events overseas have an immediate impact "at home" and, in parallel, the disturbance of the internal environment of the nation-state generates effects territories situated thousands of miles away. In fact, globalization means an intermingling of national, regional and global events so that the remote impact is amplified, while most local events can have significant planetary consequences. From these aspects derives people's fear of globalization's effects.

Globalization, as a complex phenomenon, multidimensional and relatively ubiquitous, produces a variety of effects, with a diverse content and nature. Thus, there are positive effects, such as better economic, cultural, political, military, environmental cooperation between states; relatively rapid development of economic sectors in some geographical areas, the employment of non-state actors in the fight against poverty in the world, creating conditions for sustainable development of mankind. On the other hand, globalization generates negative or adverse effects, such as: maintaining inequalities between North and South, between income inequality and the working capital, amplifying the differences between high-skilled and unskilled labor, significantly affecting the role of nation-state, the emergence of new conflicts and threats (revival of nationalist movements, international mafia networks, massive migration from poor countries to the developed ones)6. On the other hand, globalization, by relocating the intensive industry from a country to states where skilled and cheap labour is present, and by deregulation, significantly affects sustainable economic development, especially in developing states.

Both by the negative effects it generates and the relocation of important enterprises and deregulation, globalization affects national security directly and indirectly. Therefore, it can be said that globalization, by its negative effects, especially in developing states, is a possible threat to national security.

3. Climate changes and national security

Today, more and more experts accept the fact that the Earth is experiencing a poignant climate change, a phenomenon that has many different consequences for national security. These changes include sea level rise, changes in rainfall and drought pattern and increased frequency as well as intensity of extreme weather events. In the latter case, we speak about torrential rain and/or snowfall in short time and on relatively large surfaces, the appearance and manifestation of storms and cyclones in regions where once weather events did not occur, prolonged droughts, desertification7.

The climate varies greatly from one place to another, from one year to another or from one parameter to another. Among the manifestations of climate changes considered likely or very likely for our century, are the following: increased maximum temperature and augmenting of the number of warm days for most of the land areas, increased minimum temperatures and reduced number of cold days for most land areas, increased drought risk for most land areas, increased number of episodes of intense rain and snow for most land areas, increased intensity of tropical cyclones in some regions and the average and maximum rainfall intensity that accompanies them8.

The climate changes have a significant, strong and direct impact on national security by the effects they produce on social, political, economic, military and environmental levels.

The risks of climate changes are real and their effects are already being felt. That is why the international community has responded adequately to these risks. The UN estimates that all emergency calls since 2007 have been related to climate. That same year, the UN Security Council held its first debate on climate changes and their implications for international security. In turn, the European Council drew attention to the consequences of climate changes for international security and, in June 2007, invited the High Representative and the European Commission to submit a joint report to the meeting in the spring of 20089.

Currently, the effects of climate changes are felt more strongly: temperatures are rising, ice caps are melting, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and gaining in intensity. All this generates national security consequences. In the following pages, we are going to analyse some of them.

Resource conflicts

We can already see in many places of the world the diminution of arable land, water shortages, reductions in food and fish stocks, multiplying floods and droughts extension. The climate changes will have as effect changing rainfall patterns and reducing available freshwater reserves in an amount that could reach 20-30% in some regions10.

Economic damage and risk to coastal cities and critical infrastructure

According to estimates, a global unchanged policy regarding climate changes could cost the global economy up to 20% of global GDP per year11 and this proportion will increase even more in the years to come. Major cities and their supporting infrastructure such as port facilities and oil refineries are often constructed on shore or river deltas. The raised sea water level and increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters are a serious threat to these regions and their economic prospects. Thus, the Eastern coast of China and India, the Caribbean and Central America would be particularly affected. The increasing number of natural disasters and humanitarian crises will exert considerable pressure on donor resources, including capabilities that allow carrying emergency relief operations.

Loss of territory and border disputes

Scientists predict major changes to the shores of seas and oceans during the twenty-first century. The coast kickback and submersion of large areas could lead to loss of territories and disappearance of all countries, for instance small island states. The disputes concerning land and maritime borders and other territorial rights are likely to multiply. Rules of international law, in particular the Law of the Sea, in the regulation of territorial and border disputes will have review. The competition for access to energy resources could also take the form of conflict for resources located in the polar regions, whose likely exploitation will lead to greater warming. In turn, the desertification could be at the origin of a vicious circle that binds environmental degradation, migration as well as border and territorial conflicts that are going to threaten political stability at national and regional level.

Migration due to environmental factors

Those who are already exposed to poor sanitary conditions, unemployment or social exclusion are more vulnerable to the consequences of climate changes, which could cause migration between countries and within them, or increase the existing ones. According to the UN, by 2020, there will be millions of "ambient" migrants, this phenomenon being explained essentially by climate changes. Some countries particularly vulnerable to this phenomenon already require that migrations due to environmental factors are recognized internationally. Basically, these migrations could translate into an increase in the number of conflicts in transit and destination regions. In this respect, Europe must expect a substantial increase of migration pressures.

Situations of fragility and radicalization

The climate changes could exacerbate instability in failed states, requiring in excess the already limited ability of governments to effectively cope with the challenges that are faced with. The inability of government to meet the overall needs of its population or to protect the difficulties caused by climate change could lead to frustrations, tensions between different ethnic and religious groups in the country and a political radicalization. Thus, states, even whole regions could be destabilized.

Tensions over energy supplies

One of the main potential conflicts for resources is linked to an increased competition for access to energy resources and their control, which, as manifested, is a cause of instability. However, given that much of the world's oil reserves are in regions vulnerable to the consequences of climate changes and that many oil and gas-producing states already have to deal with important socio-economic and demographic problems, the instability tends to increase. This development, in turn, can lead to greater insecurity of energy supply and an increased competition for access to resources.

Pressures over international governance

If the international community is failing to deal with the threats above, multilateralism will be doomed to failure. The consequences of climate changes will cause resentment among culprits of this phenomenon and the most affected persons. These are just implications of policies aimed at mitigating climate changes (or failure of these policies), which will determine the political tensions nationally and globally.

The potential fracture is not just a North-South division, but will be one of South-South type, particularly the increased intake in global emissions of China and India. The international security architecture, already subjected to tensions, will be subject to increasing pressure in the coming years.

Reducing the negative effects of climate change is the responsibility of each country, regional and international organizations that must unite. Only in this way it is possible to ensure the stability and security at national, regional and international levels.

4. The impact of various crises on national security

Currently, there are local, regional and global crises in all fields, from the economic one to the ones regarding drinking water. All have a significant negative impact on national security on all components. The economic crisis lowers GDP, leads to fewer jobs and higher unemployment, reduced production of goods and services and lowers exports etc.

These effects directly act on social security as part of national security, and social and political instability can be reached. In turn, the food crisis could seriously affect social, political and military stability of a society, which is reflected in a significant reduction of national security and an increased social and political insecurity of the country's citizens. Similarly, the energy crisis has consequences in terms of safety, by reducing resources allocated to defense and national security, as well as by taking measures to reduce the consumption of petroleum products in all sectors.

The mitigation of the effects of this crisis on national security can be achieved by massive, concerted and continuous investments in human capital. Raising the awareness of citizens through their schooling judiciously managed, oriented towards the needs of the present and especially the future of the company, allows employment during the crisis and prepare them to overcome the economic crisis.

On the other hand, the human capital is less perishable than the financial one and relatively easy to manage. In addition, a high degree of citizens' training, fully in line with the requirements of socioeconomic development, facilitates the transition to the knowledge society which undoubtedly will have a beneficial impact on national security.

The demographic crisis manifested by reduced growth on the one hand and the population aging, on the other hand, will be reflected in the national security.

In this regard, we will see a significant decrease in citizens fit for military service and economically active, which will create difficulties in ensuring human, financial and material resources necessary to support adequate security. In addition, the demographic crisis may be exacerbated by the emigration of Romanian citizens in other EU countries in the hope of finding better living and working conditions.

On national security level, a negative impact can have the increase of non European immigrants coming to Romania in search of living and working conditions superior to those in their countries of origin. Their adaptation and integration is possible in time, which can create difficulties in national security field through a different behavior from that of the natives.

Conclusions

National security as a whole of favorable conditions of life and human activity is a dynamic reality and a conscious, voluntary, concerted and constant construct of state institutions, of the country's citizens and of civil society organizations with security vocation. It is influenced by many different threats (symmetric, asymmetric, conventional, unconventional, hybrid), and the following phenomena and processes: globalization, various crises (financial and economic crisis, energy crisis, water crisis, energy crisis, demographic crisis); climate changes. The latter, through their effects, are considered threats to national security.

Mitigating those threats can be achieved through the concerted efforts of all stakeholders with expertise in national security. Thus, at the national level, economic and social measures, attractive to nationals, can be adopted, so that they do not want to leave their homeland to emigrate in search of a better life and work. Also, economic, social, political, legal measures to encourage immigration or to stop it may be adopted.

Since the security threats effects are cumulative, the national measures for their reduction are required to be concerted, constant, continuous and systematic, on one hand and correlated with regional and international ones, on the other hand.

Footnote

NOTES:

1 Petre DUlU, Asymmetric threats or hybrid threats: conceptual delimitations for the substatiation of national security and defence, "Carol I" National Defence University Press, Bucharest, 2013, chap.1.

2 Barry BUZAN, Popoarele, statele si teama, pp. 124- 152, Editura Cartier, 2000. Nicoleta LASAN, "Securitatea: concepte În societatea contemporana", Revista de AdministraNie Publica si Politici Sociale An II, Nr. 4(5)/ decembrie 2010, http://www. uvvg. ro/revad/ files/nr5/ Nicoleta %20LASANSecuritatea %20concepte %20in%20 societatea% 20contemporana .pdf, pp. 46-48.

3 Strategia NaNionala de Aparare a României, http: //www. presidency.ro/static/ordine/SNAp/SNAp.pdf, p. 13, Strategia europeana de securitate - o Europa sigura Într-o lume mai buna, http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/librairie/PDF /QC7 809568 ROC.pdf, pp.31-35.

4 Petre DUlU, Asymmetric threats or hybrid threats: conceptual delimitations for the substatiation of national security and defence, "Carol I" National Defence University Press, Bucharest, 2013, chapters 2 and 3.

5 Florin, ERHAN, Globalization.In search of balance, Bucharest, Economic Press, 2003, p. 9

6 Petre DUlU, The security environment in the context of globalization and regional integration, Bucharest, "Carol I" NDU Press, 2007, pp. 164-165.

7 Petre DUlU, Various phenomena affecting the local, regional and international stability and security, Bucharest, "Carol I" NDU Press, 2012, p. 25.

8 Robert McLEMAN, Barry SMIT, Archive: Commentaire No 86:Changement climatique, migration et sécurité, https://www.csis.gc.ca/pblctns/cmmntr/ cm86-fra.asp, p. 6, apud Petre DUlU, Fenomene diverse cu impact asupra stabilitaNii si securitaNii locale, regionale si internaNionale, Bucuresti, Editura UNAp "Carol I", 2012, p. 26.

9 Changements climatiques et sécurité internationale, Document établi par le Haut Représentant et la Commission européenne à l'attention du Conseil européen, 14 mars 2008, http://world-waterforum-2012- europa.eu/IMG/pdf/ 99389. pdf, accesed on August 12, 2013, p. 2.

10 Ibidem, p. 3.

11 Ibidem, p. 4.

References

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