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Res High Educ (2008) 49:6279
DOI 10.1007/s11162-007-9064-5
Jeff Allen Steven B. Robbins
Received: 27 October 2006 / Published online: 4 August 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007
Abstract We hypothesized that college major persistence would be predicted by rst-year academic performance and an interest-major composite score that is derived from a students entering major and two work task scores. Using a large data set representing 25 four-year institutions and nearly 50,000 students, we randomly split the sample into an estimation sample and a validation sample. Using the estimation sample, we found major-specic coefcients corresponding to the two work task scores that optimized the prediction of major persistence. Then, we applied the estimated coefcients to the validation sample to form an interest-major composite score representing the likelihood of persisting in entering major. Using the validation sample, we then tested a theoretical model for major persistence that incorporated academic preparation, the interest-major composite score, and rst-year academic performance. The results suggest that (1) interest-major t and rst-year academic performance work to independently predict whether a student will stay in their entering major and (2) the relative importance of two work task scores in predicting major persistence depends on the entering major. The results support Hollands theory of person-environment t and suggest that academic performance and interest-major t are key constructs for understanding major persistence behavior.
Keywords College major persistence Hollands theory Person-environment t
College GPA Hierarchical logistic regression
Introduction
The choice of major is one of the most important decisions students make as they enter college. Recent theories suggest that students who choose a major congruent with their skills and interests are more likely to succeed and persist in that major and in college.
J. Allen (&) Steven B. Robbins
ACT Research, ACT, Inc, Iowa City, IA 52243-0168, USA e-mail: [email protected]
Prediction of College Major Persistence Based on Vocational Interests, Academic Preparation, and First-Year Academic Performance
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Res High Educ (2008) 49:6279 63
Smart, Feldman, and Etherington (2000, p. 33) suggest that students choose academic environments compatible with their personality types. Further, they suggest that academic environments reward different patterns of student abilities and interests. These suggestions led us to two propositions: (1) major choice is affected by a students pattern of interests and (2) the students...