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Nat Hazards (2012) 62:733744 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9988-0
REVIEW ARTICLE
Wenbo Xu Wenjuan Yu Guoping Zhang
Received: 3 May 2011 / Accepted: 20 September 2011 / Published online: 4 October 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011
Abstract Debris ow is a serious disaster that frequently happens in mountainous area. This study presents an effective method for forecasting it by rainfall, which is one of the important components for prediction. The Sichuan Province is taken as an example. The geographic information system (GIS) is chosen as a tool to estimate the precipitation of hazard point, and use of statistical technique is made to calculate attenuation coefcient of effective antecedent precipitation. With such methodologies, the logistic regression model is used to comparatively establish the prediction model of two forms rainfall combination:(1) intraday rainfall and 10-day previous rainfall, (2) intraday rainfall and two types of effective antecedent rainfall which are short-time-heavy rainfall and long-time-light rainfall. The results indicate that the location of debris ows and the distribution of rainfall are factors interrelated. Secondly, the contribution rate of intraday rainfall is the highest. Thirdly, the second form rainfall combination has a higher prediction accuracy, 2.3% for short-time-heavy rainfall and 2.1% for long-time-light rainfall, which suggests that a moderate improvement is achieved by the rainfall classication.
Keywords Debris ow Logistic regression Attenuation coefcient
Effective antecedent rainfall
1 Introduction
Debris ow is a sudden natural disaster caused by precipitation and a large volume of loose debris torrent solid in the mountainous area. The factors that determine this kind of disaster can be grouped into two categories: (1) intrinsic factors that contribute to the debris ow susceptibility, such as elevation, slope, vegetation coverage, land-use, and soil texture; and
W. Xu (&) W. Yu
Institute of Geo-Spatial Science and Technology, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, 611731 Chengdu, Sichuan Province, Chinae-mail: [email protected]
G. Zhang
Public Weather Service Center of CMA, Beijing, China
Prediction method of debris ow by logistic model with two types of rainfall: a case studyin the Sichuan, China
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(2) extrinsic factors that tend to trigger debris ow, such as heavy rainfall (Ma 2002). The intrinsic factors always provide the material condition and they can be different in different areas. The rainfall increases the gravity...