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Realism, Institutionalism, and the Asian Economic Crisis1
The Asian economic crisis has brought into sharp focus competing visions of Asian regional order put forward by Realism and Institutionalism. In the early 1990s, Institutionalism challenged the traditional dominance of the Realist paradigm in the region. Now, it has been put on the defensive. The Asian crisis has rekindled inter-state disputes, reduced the credibility of multilateral bodies such as ASEAN, APEC and the ARF, and may be reshaping perceptions of the regional balance of power. It has underscored the relative salience of great power leadership vis-a-vis small power-led co-operative ventures. But this article sees the Asian crisis as a doubleedged sword. While raising doubts about Institutionalism, it does not enhance the credibility of Realist prescriptions for regional order based on balance of power frameworks. Rather, a plethora of developments has opened up new possibilities for an Institutionalist reordering of the Asia-Pacific region.
Introduction
The economic crisis in Asia has created a deep sense of gloom about the prospects for order and stability in the region. Most assessments of its political and security implications tend to be pessimistic.2 In April 1998, a report prepared for the U.S. Congress by the Congressional Research Service warned that "a prolonged economic decline could fuel nationalism, undermine regional co-operation, and foster confrontation over long-standing territorial and other disputes."3 The downfall of the Soeharto regime and the subsequent anarchy in Indonesia, the unravelling of efforts to bring North Korea into a cooperative framework, and the increased climate of inter-state tension in Southeast Asia are indicative of the far-reaching impact of the crisis on regional stability. Added to these is the potential of the crisis to reshape the balance of power in the region. Asian misgivings about the U.S. role in helping the region out of the crisis, the failure of Japan to provide decisive leadership, and China's ability to project itself as a responsible power by promising not to devalue its currency, are reshaping perceptions about their relative position and role in the regional strategic equation.
In conceptual terms, the crisis brings into sharp focus the competing visions of regional order put forward by Realism and Institutionalism.4 Prior to the crisis, especially in the early 1990s, Institutionalism had challenged the traditional dominance...