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Overall trends and age structure
Further sustained population growth in 2005
The preliminary results of the March 2005 French census survey led the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques, INSEE) to further readjust population figures since 1999 (Richet-Mastain, 2006). INSEE now estimates the total population at 1 January 2006 at 62.9 million, of whom 61 million live in metropolitan France (mainland + Corsica).
The metropolitan French population rose by an estimated 342,000 in 2005 (i.e. by 5.6%o), versus 362,000 in 2004 (6%o) and 309,000 in 2003 (5.2%c). While not as exceptionally high as in 2004, the population increase was still much larger than in the late 1990s (Table 1(1)). Despite a slight rise in the number of births from 768,000 to 775,000, the total increase in 2005 was slightly smaller than the previous year's. It will be recalled that after the 2003 heatwave, which pushed the number of deaths up to 552,000 that year, their number dropped to 511,000 in 2004. In 2005, mortality returned to a more usual level of 527,000 deaths, putting the natural increase at 247,000, or 10,000 less than in 2004. Net migration is estimated to have fallen from 105,000 in 2004 to 95,000 in 2005, given that immigration has stopped rising since 2004 (see below).
France's natural increase remains by far the highest in the European Union (EU). Among countries of comparable size, the United Kingdom has registered a natural increase of one-half that of France, while Italy has posted a negative figure. In Germany, deaths have outnumbered births by 100,000145,000 each year since 2002. According to Eurostat estimates(2), France is one of the few EU countries - with Denmark, the Netherlands, and Finland where natural increase still represents the largest share of population growth. Many countries are registering a negative natural increase, most notably the Baltic and central European countries that joined the Union in 2004.
A still very moderate ageing of the population structure
In addition to the persistence of a relatively high fertility in the current European context, France's natural increase is also due to a population structure that remains more favourable for births than for deaths (Figure 1). Nevertheless, a gradual "ageing" process is under way...