Response to Paul Staniland’s Review of The Violence Pendulum: Tactical Change in Islamist Groups in Egypt and Indonesia

I am grateful to Paul Staniland for the generous review of my book. His sharp analysis raises some important questions.

Staniland is right that causal complexity can be both a strength and a weakness. My goal was to challenge the bifurcated study of radicalization and de-radicalization and explain tactical shifts over time. Therefore, it seemed important to show how background conditions may affect outcomes in the long run or alter the impact of repression. The result is an account that can at times become admittedly complicated. To add clarity, I differentiate between the determinants of ideological versus behavioral adjustments. For instance, grievances and repression have a stronger effect on ideological than on behavioral escalation, whereas fragmentation and organizational weakness have a stronger impact on behavioral changes than ideological shifts. Public opinion and norms of resistance do not directly...