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1. Introduction
A simulated test market is, "a form of market testing where consumers are exposed to a simulated purchase situation to gauge the buyers' reactions to a product, advertising or marketing mix variations [...] It is used in marketing planning, estimating market demand and sales forecasting" ([13] Clemente, 2002). Simulated test marketing (STM) is widely deployed by manufacturers and retailers to predict new product sales in the USA and Europe ([6] Brody and Lord, 2008). Test marketing secures business by seeking to avoid major failures. The stakes are high as "between 33 per cent and 90 per cent of all new products fail" ([17] Dibb and Simkin, 2008, p. 65). Test markets are often classified into two general dimensions: traditional (or standard) and simulated ([11] Clancy et al. , 2006). The first can only gauge market response in a "carefully selected part of the marketplace" ([42] Malhotra, 2007, p. 241), while the latter also offer national projections, modelling and scenario simulations. Traditional methods are often very simplistic in nature. For example, smoothie company Innocent started its business with a simple "bin test", asking locals "should we give up our jobs to make these smoothies? Yes or no" ([28] Germain and Reed, 2009, p. 29). True STMs are far more sophisticated. They often exploit empirical generalizations derived from external databases to address questions such as "what if?", "how much?", "when?" and "why?" ([57] Sharp, 2010). Therefore, STM models work well in established well-known markets, while traditional test markets seem more suitable for fuzzy cases ([30] Gundee, 1982; [40], [41] Mahajan and Wind, 1988, 1992). The interesting issue is whether emerging countries are prepared to adopt existing western STM models as they are? In this paper we have explored this question in more detail.
[12] Clancy et al. (1994, p. 46) pointed out that STM is, "the single most validated tool in marketing research". According to a study by [71] Wherry (2006), the average accuracy claimed for developed markets has reached ±9 per cent. However, an on-going discussion between STM leading practitioners reveals a number of areas for further improvement ([72] Willke, 2002; [44] Markowitz, 2010). Although Markowitz highlights the rising need for international "transferability", the discussion still revolves around mature "western" markets. The importance...