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Despite the position of the United States as de facto global hegemon, China is a rising power in the world. As Chinese power grows, the projection of Chinese influence will be felt most acutely in Southeast Asia. Whether to accommodate, contain or resist China will depend on future developments that none can foresee, including Chinese ambitions, the policies of other international players (the U.S., Japan), and the cohesion or fragility of the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN). This paper argues that in deciding how best to deal with China, two factors that will influence the countries of Southeast Asia are their own long histories of bilateral relations with China and their own differing conceptions of how foreign relations should be conducted. This is to argue that history and culture are central to any understanding of the likely future shape of China-Southeast Asia relations. Only by taking history and culture into account will analysts be in a position to predict how the mainland and maritime states of Southeast Asia are likely to respond to a more powerful, confident and assertive China.
Introduction: China's Regional Ambitions
China has strategic interests and goals that it is determined to pursue, even in the face of U.S. opposition.1 These are summed up in the two phrases that recur again and again in discussions with Chinese officials: to overcome the "century of humiliation" that China suffered at the hands of the West and Japan from the First Opium War to the proclamation of the People's Republic (PRC) in 1949; and in the process to regain China's "rightful place in the world".2 But what is that "rightful place"? Chinese leaders are not so unrealistic as to hope to recreate a new sinocentric world order with China as global hegemon in place of the United States. They do, however, want China to be recognized as one of a small and select group of great powers responsible for shaping the international world order.3
For China to regain its "rightful place", it must remain united (one lesson of Chinese history is that the Middle Kingdom was weak when divided) and avoid any loss of territory (in Tibet, Xinjiang or elsewhere). It is determined, therefore, to regain Taiwan. A primary goal for China is...