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Clim Dyn (2017) 48:209224
DOI 10.1007/s00382-016-3070-2
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4885-1299
Web End = Received: 10 June 2015 / Accepted: 6 March 2016 / Published online: 19 March 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016
Olympic Games in 2008 and Shanghai World Expo in 2010 are presented. The result shows that the current model is able to reproduce the gross pattern of the summer intra-seasonal rainfall over China at a 20-day lead. The present study provides, for the rst time, a guide on the statistical extended-range forecast of summer rainfall anomalies for the entire China. It is anticipated that the ideas and methods proposed here will facilitate the extended-range forecast in China.
Keywords Extended-range forecast Summer rainfall anomalies over China Spatialtemporal projection model Intraseasonal oscillation
1 Introduction
Most of the current operation weather forecast centers typically issue short-range (<10 days) timescale weather forecast or monthly and seasonal climate outlook. Between the forecast of weather and climate scales is an intermediate scale (1030-day), which we refer to as extended-range forecast. So far, the dynamic models still have difculty in simulating and predicting the changes of atmospheric and oceanic motions on this intermediate timescale (Kim et al. 2009), and the basic theory for the extended-range forecast is not fully understood. Therefore, the extended-range forecast became an operational forecast gap worldwide. However, given the importance of extended-range forecast on agricultural management and the disaster prevention and reduction, the government and the public have the increasing needs for such information. Thus, as one of most challenging issues, the extended-range forecast draws wide attention from weather and climate community (Zhang 2013).
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Web End = The statistical extendedrange (1030day) forecast of summer rainfall anomalies over the entire China
Zhiwei Zhu1,2http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4885-1299
Web End = Tim Li1,2
Abstract The extended-range (1030-day) rainfall forecast over the entire China was carried out using spatialtemporal projection models (STPMs). Using a rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis of intraseasonal (1080-day) rainfall anomalies, China is divided into ten sub-regions. Different predictability sources were selected for each of the ten regions. The forecast skills are ranked for each region. Based on temporal correlation coefcient (TCC) and Gerrity skill score, useful skills are found for most parts of China at a 2025-day lead. The southern China and the mid-lower reaches of Yangtze...