Storm surge hazard in Manila Bay: Typhoon Nesat (Pedring) and the SW monsoon

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Web End = Nat Hazards (2016) 81:15691588

DOI 10.1007/s11069-016-2146-y

ORIGINAL PAPER

Vronique M. Morin1 Pennung Warnitchai2

Sutat Weesakul3

Received: 28 April 2014 / Accepted: 1 January 2016 / Published online: 11 January 2016 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Abstract The Philippines has an average of twenty tropical cyclones entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility every year, with about six to nine making landfall. In September 2011, Typhoon Nesat (Pedring) passed about 200 km north of Manila Bay with maximum sustained wind speeds of 46.3 m/s (CAT 2), yet it was one of the most destructive storms to affect the coastal areas of Metro Manila. In order to further understand the storm surge hazard for Metro Manila, and why Typhoon Nesat was so destructive, both an analysis of historical records and numerical modeling were undertaken. The historical analysis revealed that neither the most intense (with intensity dened as the maximum sustained wind speed of the cyclone) nor the storms that passed closest to the site generated the largest values of surge. Numerical simulations of the storm surge were completed using wind and pressure input data from the Holland vortex model, the Rankine vortex model and reforecast data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) model. NCEP data were found to better represent the wind eld in the vicinity of Manila Bay, as it accounted for interaction between Typhoon Nesat and the SW monsoon winds. Neglecting these interactions, the storm surge simulations with analytical vortex models underestimated predicted surge values by more than ve times, while the

& Vronique M. Morin [email protected]

Pennung Warnitchai [email protected]

Sutat Weesakul [email protected]

1 Urban and Disaster Risk Management, Social Urban Rural and Resilience Global Practice,

The World Bank, 1818 H Street, Washington, DC 20433, USA

2 Structural Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology,58 Moo 9, Km. 42, Paholyothin Highway, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand

3 Water Engineering and Management, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, 58 Moo 9, Km. 42, Paholyothin Highway, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand

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