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ABSTRACT
John Platt's article "Strong Inference" (1964) suggested a general and effective method of scientific investigation. It describes a disciplined strategy of falsification of multiple, clearly formulated hypotheses that is used more regularly in some scientific fields than in others. Platt urged that strong inference be more widely and more systematically applied, particularly in slower-moving fields of science. The article has influenced integrative biological fields since its publication, ranging from ecology to psychology, and has had a substantial following in some of the social sciences. It has also evoked severe criticism for its idealization of certain fields as exemplars and for its imperfections in historiography and philosophy of science. I argue here that the article was more an inspirational tract than the development of a formal scientific methodology. Although both Platt's critics and his adherents appeared to take the article far too seriously, its influence has transcended its limitations.
IN 1964, JOHN PLATT PUBLISHED a lead article in the journal Science entitled "Strong Inference." He called attention to the rapid progress being made in some scientific fields, such as nuclear physics and molecular biology, and he explored the reasons why these areas moved so rapidly, while others languished as unexciting fields of investigation. The article captured the attention of many academics dissatisfied with the pace and standards of their disciplines.
"Strong Inference" describes a systematic use of inductive reasoning that promises rapid progress in scientific investigations. Flatt wrote vividly and slyly, and he capitalized on the chagrin of slower fields in his subtitle: "Certain systematic methods of scientific thinking may produce much more rapid progress than others." Early in the paper, he described the strategy of "Strong Inference": the scientist must construct two or more falsifiable hypotheses that might explain a phenomenon; devise crucial experiments to eliminate one or more of them; carry out the experiments to obtain decisive results; then "recycle" the process to eliminate subsidiary hypotheses. Platt disclaimed any novelty for these prescriptions, saying only that fast-moving fields are characterized by their more systematic application.
Platt's rhetoric was exemplary in several respects. First, he subtly cited examples of the effectiveness of strong inference from molecular biology, chemistry, and atomic physics, leaving readers with the notion (although he did not actually claim it...