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Tocquevillean analyses of social movements are limited to cases in which structural opportunities (the vulnerability of the state to popular political pressure) coincide with perceived opportunities (the public's awareness of opportunities for successful protest activity). This alignment may not always occur, however. I examine the implications of a mismatch between structural opportunities and perceived opportunities using participant and eyewitness accounts of the Iranian revolutionary movement of 1977 through 1979. By several objective measures, the monarchy was not structurally vulnerable. Yet Iranians appear to have perceived opportunities for successful protest, basing their perceptions on a shift in the opposition movement, not on a shift in the structural position of the state. In the conflict between structural conditions and perceived opportunities, the structural conditions gave way. Only by examining cases in which structural opportunities and perceived opportunities are out of balance can the relative effect of each be determined.
"When a people which has put up with an oppressive rule over a long period without protest suddenly finds the government relaxing its pressure, it takes up arms against it." -Tocqueville 1955:176
STRUCTURAL OPPORTUNITY AND PERCEIVED OPPORTUNITY IN SOCIAL-MOVEMENT THEORY: THE IRANIAN REVOLUTION OF 1979*
Alexis de Tocqueville's famous dictum is based on two observations about the French Revolution. On one hand, the government undercut and alienated its bases of support through ill-conceived efforts at reform. On the other hand, the populace perceived a lessening of "pressure" and rose up to take advantage. The strength of Tocqueville's analysis lies in its combination of objective and subjective factors. It is not only the structural weakness of the state that precipitates revolution in Tocqueville's model, or the subjective sentiments of collective efficacy, but the combination of the two.1
Social-movement theory has recently revived this combined approach after years of veering between structuralist and subjectivist extremes (Foran 1993b; Klandermans, Kriesi, and Tarrow 1988; Morris and Mueller 1992). McAdam's (1982) oft-cited book, Political Process and the Development of Black Insurgency, may be the model for contemporary social-movement theorizing on structure and consciousness. McAdam argues that the "structure of political opportunities" is one of two major determinants of political protest, the other being organizational strength: "The opportunities for a challenger to engage in successful collective action . . . vary greatly...