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The terrorist threat in Southeast Asia is more serious than it seemed a year ago. This is reflected in new arrests in the second half of 2002 of members of the clandestine Al Qaeda-linked organizations Jemaah Islamiah (JI) and Kumpulan Militan Malaysia (KMM) in Singapore and Malaysia respectively, as well as more terrorist incidents in Indonesia and the Philippines, including the Bali bombing in October.
The JI, which aims to establish an Islamic state embracing Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, southern Philippines, and southern Thailand, is an associate of Al Qaeda and has networks in most of these countries. While JI appears to be central to the terrorist agenda in Southeast Asia, both it and Al Qaeda have links with radical groups in the Philippines (such as the Abu Sayaaf and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front [MILF]), Malaysia (the KMM), and possibly also in Indonesia. Thus, a wide network of terrorist organizations with secret cells and support groups exists and its tentacles are still being uncovered by security agencies. Much of the network is still intact. According to terrorism expert Rohan Gunaratna, of the 400-600 Southeast Asians trained by Al Qaeda and its associate groups in camps in Afghanistan and Southeast Asia, no more than 100 had been arrested up to October 2002. Certain other sources estimate the number trained to be a few thousands.
Furthermore, information gleaned from JI detainees shows that the terrorists seem willing to resort to any tactic to create conflict and chaos between and within states, which they can exploit for their own ends. For instance, it has come to light that JI members in Singapore and Johor were planning to incite violence between the ethnic communities in Singapore by bombing installations in Singapore and making it appear that the sabotage was carried out by Malaysian state agents.
In objective terms, the region is also becoming more important to the United States. The increased U.S. interest has so far been focused largely on the war against terrorism, the region being seen as a "second front" in the war. The war against terrorism has contributed to the strengthening of U.S. co-operation with Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore. It could also lead to stronger co-operation...