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The Turnout Gap: Race, Ethnicity, and Political Inequality in a Diversifying America. By Bernard L. Fraga. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2018. 274 pp. $26.99 (cloth)
What accounts for the persistently higher turnout rate of non-Hispanic White voters, in comparison with those of other racial/ethnic groups? Bernard Fraga answers this question with his theory of electoral influence: greater group influence—operationalized by the relative size of a group within a given electoral jurisdiction—leads to higher levels of turnout by group members. Fraga compiles an abundance of data to build clear and persuasive evidence in support of his theory, while also refuting alternative explanations for the “turnout gap,” or the difference between the rate of turnout among White and non-White voters.
The book advances a rich theoretical story, supported by deftly woven evidence that incorporates historical analysis, quantitative analysis, and political geography. Fraga demonstrates that the turnout gap has widened over time, with preferences of non-Hispanic White voters increasingly overrepresented in electoral outcomes. Using survey data to infer attitudes of members of different racial/ethnic groups, Fraga argues that in a counterfactual scenario of no turnout gap, Democrats would have secured an electoral college victory in 2016 and majorities in the two most recent Senate elections (2012 and 2016).
The second chapter presents a synopsis of major landmarks in voting rights history, and subsequent chapters incorporate an innovative combination of data sources. To build support for his theory, Fraga leverages decades of individual-level data, with samples exceeding millions of respondents.