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1. Introduction
Since the founding of the Vienna Circle in the 1920s, several means of inquiry began to emerge in social science. The ‘causal’ explanation is one such method whereby social scientists attempt to investigate the ‘condition’ of social phenomena. In the case of transboundary water conflicts, several conditions, with the support of empirical evidence, have been laid out to explain what leads to conflicts among or between the riparian states. These include: upstream-downstream approach, growing scarcity, populations, pollution and environmental changes, e.g. climate change (Falkenmark, 1986; Homer-Dixon, 1991; Gleick, 1993; Haftendorn, 2000; Toset et al., 2000; United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 2006; Dinar, 2008).
In the case of Indus water sharing between India and Pakistan, it can be asserted that the condition that led to the conflict was the act of India cutting-off water supply to the Pakistan canals on 1 April 1948. And although the condition that led the two states to end the conflict was the signing of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) in 1960, on multiple occasions India and Pakistan have entered into confrontation on Indus water sharing. For instance, in 1970, on Salal Hydroelectric project, India and Pakistan had conflict for nearly a decade, which was resolved in 1978; Baglihar Hydroelectric project was settled through a neutral expert in 2007; Kishanganga Hydroelectric project was resolved through the Court of Arbitration in December 2013 and conflict still persists on Wullar Barrage/Tubul Navigation project. On many occasions, Pakistan has raised objections on hydro-power projects carried out by India that include the Ralte (850 MW), the lower Kalnai (48 MW), the Miyar (120 MW) and the Pakadul project (1,000 MW).
This paper explores the conundrum of why, despite an agreement that was signed in 1960, conflicts persist between the riparian states over water sharing thereby adversely affecting cooperation between the two countries. In other words, what factors lead to conflict between the riparian states post IWT? In order to probe this matter, this study evaluates reports and official documents from experts, government officials and ex-diplomats, research institutions and think tanks, and media reports. The paper also analyzes two variables that will magnify further conflict in days to come if appropriate care is not taken to ameliorate them. The paper concludes in determining the...