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UNDERSTANDING THE SEX RATIO IN INDIA: A SIMULATION APPROACH*
The highly masculine sex ratio in India has increased substantially in the twentieth century, in contrast to most other countries in the world. Competing arguments alternatively posit underenumeration, highly masculine sex ratios at birth, or excess female mortality throughout the life course as the factors underlying the level of the overall sex ratio; these arguments have not been resolved. Based on population projections that simulate population dynamics, our findings show that small differences in mortality at young ages, persisting over a long period, as well as a sex ratio at birth of 106 males per 100 females, result in a highly masculine population sex ratio.
The sex ratio estimated by the Census Office of India is highly masculine and continues to increase. Between 1921 and 1971 it grew from 1,029 to 1,075 males per thousand females (see Figure 1). In contrast, over the same period, most other countries in the world were experiencing a trend in the sex ratio that favored females. The 1981 census presented the first downward signs for the sex ratio in India, with an estimated 1,068 males per thousand females. In the 1991 census, however, the estimate was 1,079, suggesting that the sex ratio again has increased in favor of males to a level beyond that reached in 1971. To some extent, these fluctuations are likely to indicate problems in the consistency of data collection between censuses as well as differences in female underenumeration from one census to the next (Dyson 1987).
The more recent rise in the sex ratio has reintroduced fears about differences in mortality between the sexes, which previously had been allayed by the apparent drop in the ratio in 1981. Several authors have expressed this continuing disparity between males and females in terms of total missing females. In a highly populated country, the results of such calculations can give impressive estimates of females who are missing. For example, Coale (1991) calculates that an estimated 22.8 million females are missing in India; Sen's (1989) estimate is almost double this figure.
Competing arguments, alternatively suggesting underenumeration, highly masculine sex ratios at birth, or excess female mortality throughout the life course as the factors underlying the overall sex ratio,...