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The goal of the study is to formalize the concept of viral marketing (VM) as a close derivative of contagion models from epidemiology. The study examines in detail the two common mathematical models of epidemic spread and their marketing implications. The SIR and SEIAR models of infectious disease spread are examined in detail. From this analysis of the epidemiological foundations along with a review of relevant marketing literature, a marketing model of VM is developed. This study demonstrates the key elements that define viral marketing as a formal marketing concept and the distinctive mechanical features that differ from conventional marketing.
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INTRODUCTION
Marketers can gain significant advantages by harnessing the willingness of customers to pass along the marketing message at no additional cost to the firm. This potential for rapid and widespread propagation of the message is both attractive and elusive. Do marketers understand the parameters that allow rapid and effective spread of a marketing message through a 'viral' process? Understanding the nature of the spread of disease in a population from the perspective of an epidemiologist should significantly help marketers organize their thoughts on viral marketing campaigns in a more structured and disciplined manner. The theoretical model of viral marketing is presented based on tried and true mathematical underpinnings from the epidemiology literature. Practitioners have widely adopted the term viral marketing. Beyond the current interest in viral marketing, marketing theory has long been relying on epidemiological concepts. For example, Bass (1969) used an epidemic model per Bartlett (1960) as a foundation for his new product diffusion model. Van der Lans, et. al. (2010) also used a viral branching model to explain the electronic word of mouth propagation process.
In more informal contexts, terms from epidemiology, the study of diseases in populations, are often used to explain the viral marketing process. Arguably the most influential of these was Godin (2000) in his presentation of the idea virus. Other marketing practitioners (Lindquist and Sirgy, 2005; Rosen, 2009; Post, 2010; Southgate, et. al., 2010) have used terms such as contagion and infection to explain viral marketing. These concepts are exclusively derived from epidemiology. Understanding VM must start with a clear, useful, rigorous definition. After developing a definition of VM two models of...