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The saber rattling rhetoric of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has fueled fears that Iranian-driven Shia politics may polarize the region and spark conflict or civil strife.1 Israel remains notably unsetded by Iran's nuclear program and Ahmadinejad's belligerent public remarks, floating rumors of a 30-day war with Iran.2 Ironically, Ahmadinejad lacks the power to act on such rhetoric, as control over Iran's military resides with its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei.
In light of these regional tensions, what is the emerging strategic reality vis-à-vis Iran? In the policy sphere there exists a debate over whether a pan-Shiism unified leadership may destabilize the region or whether the more pressing challenge lies in containing Iranian efforts to assert strategic and cultural hegemony in the region.
This paper focuses more on the strategic considerations and role of Iran's cyber capability in regards to regional instability and future conflict. There are offensive and defensive aspects to that strategic equation, which must be understood and addressed. Iran has shown a willingness to employ cyber tools to maintain the power of the regime at home as well, it appears, to influence the policies or posture of other nations towards Iran in order to deter cyber attacks or other action that Iran deems hostile to its interests.
We believe that Iran will pursue an aggressive regional policy that employs cyber tools that affect its neighbors and the West. These tools include malware that can disable critical infrastructure, create confusion, distrust, deception, disruption, support or to drive psychological operations that deter hostile activity or otherwise achieve strategic or tactical objectives. Weapons like Stuxnet offer the threat of cyber weapons without tying them to a particular strategic need or a state's capacity to mount operations. The tools may offer particular value in complementing kinetic strategies and tactics.
Iran seems likely to take steps that increase or leverage its influence among Shia populations. Iran will not likely voluntarily relinquish development of its nuclear arms program. It will try move to strengthen military and economic ties with Russia, China, and India, and try to manipulate those relationships to evade or minimize the impact of international sanctions.
Until Iran has improved its cyber offensive and shored up its defensive capabilities, it seems unlikely to engage in a near-term...