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For decades, the standard framework for describing and understanding U.S.-Latin American relations has been the overwhelming hegemonic power of the "colossus of the north." Now, though, with the rise of regional powers like Brazil, the importance of new emerging economies like China, and the diversity of political and economic models in the region, policymakers and observers are beginning to discuss the decline of U.S. power in the region. Whether real or perceived, the effects of waning U.S. influence are already shaping countries' calculations in their domestic and foreign policies and the formation of multilateral alliances. What are the implications of the perceived decline of U.S. hegemony for Latin America? This article explores the possible facets of the decline of U.S. influence in the region. It will start by examining whether, indeed, the United States' ability to shape outcomes or impose its preferences in the region has diminished or shifted in how it must conduct diplomacy. Second, it will examine the possible outcomes of diminished influence. Finally, this article will consider the times when there have been a convergence of values and interest between the United States and governments in the region, and the likely effect that diminished U.S. power will have on areas of common interest: democracy, human rights, and the peaceful resolution of intra-regional conflicts.
From the cover of the September 2010 issue of The Economist to the pages of Foreign Affairs journalists and observers are proclaiming the decline of U.S. power in Latin America.1 While some populist leaders, such as former President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, may celebrate what they call the end of U.S. dominance (and a number of U.S. academics as well), other more sober governments such as Brazil and Chile are already calling for a rebalancing of power in the western hemisphere.
The standard framework for describing and understanding U.S.-Latin American relations these past decades has been one where the United States stands as the primary hegemonic power - the "colossus of the north."2 Since the Monroe Doctrine, that power has shaped a U.S. policy that has allowed it to intervene either overtly or covertly at will to impose its national interests; support policy preferences and allies; and in some cases, even overturn governments, often with bloody consequences. But...