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Hum Ecol (2010) 38:599611 DOI 10.1007/s10745-010-9346-y
Will Limited Land, Water, and Energy Control Human Population Numbers in the Future?
David Pimentel & Michele Whitecraft & Zachary R. Scott & Leixin Zhao &
Patricia Satkiewicz & Timothy J. Scott & Jennifer Phillips & Daniel Szimak &
Gurpreet Singh & Daniela O. Gonzalez & Tun Lin Moe
Published online: 12 August 2010# Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2010
Abstract Nearly 60% of the worlds human population is malnourished and the numbers are growing. Shortages of basic foods related to decreases in per capita cropland, water, and fossil energy resources contribute to spreading malnutrition and other diseases. The suggestion is that in the future only a smaller number of people will have access to adequate nourishment. In about 100 years, when it is reported that the planet will run out of fossil energy, we suggest that a world population of about two billion might be sustainable if it relies on renewable energy technologies and also reduces per capita use of the earths natural resources.
Keywords Sustainable world population . Fossil fuels . Population growth . Agricultural land degradation
Introduction
Developed and developing nations need to provide a good quality life for their people while coping with rapid population growth, but Population is the issue no one wants to touch (Meadows 2000). The current world population is about 6.8 billion. Based on the present growth rate of 1.2% per year, the population is projected to double in approximately 58 years (Chiras 2006; PRB 2008). Because population growth cannot continue indefinitely, society can either voluntarily control its numbers or let
natural forces such as disease, malnutrition, and other disasters limit human numbers (Bartlett 199798; Pimentel et al. 1999). Increasing human numbers especially in urban areas, and increasing pollution of food, water, air, and soil by pathogenic disease organisms and chemicals, are causing a rapid increase in the prevalence of disease and human mortality (Murray and Lopez 1996; Pimentel et al. 2007). Currently, more than 3.7 billion humans are malnourished worldwidethe largest number ever (WHO 2005a, b).
The planets numerous environmental problems highlight the urgent need to evaluate available land, water, and energy resources and how they relate to the requirements of a rapidly growing human population (Pimentel and Pimentel 2008). In...