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ABSTRACT
The impact of projected climate during 2020-2080 on the potential yield of potato in Bihar has been analysed using InfoCrop model. Data from field experiments conducted at Patna, with popular potato variety Kufri Ashoka grown in rabi season of 2008-09 through 2010-11, was used for calibration and validation of model. It is indicated that increased minimum and maximum temperature projected for future time periods, however, almost no change in rainfall is projected for the stations under studied. The crop planted on 2nd December, showed projected decline in yield ranging from 3.3-5.9% for 2020, 12.5-15% for 2050 and 19.3-24.8% for 2080 time period across the locations studied. Delayed planting by 10 days successively from 2nd December through 22nd December showed a progressively lower decline in the projected yield at different locations. However, advancing the planting time by 10 days resulted in higher decline in projected yield. Weather data analysis performed for the crop season (November-February).
Key words: Climate change, crop yield, crop duration, potato
Since agricultural production is greatly affected by climate, any changes i n climate which may result from increasing c onc entrations of greenhouse gase s i n t he atmosphere could have serious consequences for agricultural yield potential (Mearns, 2000). Food and energy security of India are cruci all y dependent on favourable weathe r. According to the estimates by IPCC (2007) earth's linearly averaged surfac e t emperature has increased by 0.74°C during t he peri od 1901-2005. Increasing trends of rai nfa ll and minimum temperature in Gangetic plains of Bihar was observe d (Haris et al., 2010a ). Crop g rowth simulation models, combining knowle dge of crop characteristics and their interact ions with the environmental variables have been developed for ca lculating yield levels of crops under well specified conditions. Simulation studies are useful in predicting future climate scenario based on changing trends in temperat ure , CO2 and ra infall et c (Ha ris et al., 2010b; Haris et al., 2012). Wheat yield in Patna and Ranchi showed a declining trend due to increased temperature (therm al stress) coinciding with grain filling stage of crop (Haris et al., 2011). Predict ed inc rease in temperature for future ti me periods may prove to be detrimental...