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In the next few years, the enormous growth in mobile communications will continue unabated. Much of the underlying technology to sustain this growth is already available, and the potential mass market user base is enormous. But what is also needed is a sympathetic regulatory environment and, fundamentally, an underlying network that is flexible and intelligent enough to support whatever imaginative and innovative services and software applications users might demand.
Many of the regulatory issues, particularly regarding the integration of fixed and mobile services, have yet to be ironed out. However, there are exciting developments in progress towards delivering an intelligent infrastructure over which new mobile services will run.
NETWORKS AND SERVICES
By the mid-1990s, users should not have to consider mobile communications as anything other than a natural extension of the fixed services they enjoy on the network. Just as the notebook computer can now be a portable addition to a corporate global infrastructure, a single portable handset device will have access to the services of the desktop telephone. It will also have alphanumeric messaging and data access, identical to those available from anywhere.
The rollout of personal communications networks (PCNs), initially by the three UK licensees will, by around 1994, establish nationwide coverage of small microcells capable of supporting reliable portable telephony, comparable to digital PSTN quality--plus a range of basic and new voice and data services. PCNs in the UK have also been given the right to supply fixed telephone services, a capability not yet afforded to most GSM operators.
The end-user profile is set to change dramatically as GSM and PCN appear. Moving from the traditional niche executive status market, with high-running costs and relatively low numbers, GSM/PCN operators will endeavour to establish themselves quickly in the mass market by offering lower cost, high-volume services.
Mobile telephony users want ubiquity of service, ease of use, high quality, and speed to run their working or domestic lives more efficiently. The prospect of cost-effective, controllable communications tailored to individual needs, irrespective of geography, is quite possible, but suppliers and operators will have to demonstrate technical expertise and innovative ideas to succeed in this emerging user-driven environment.
General acceptance of GSM will be gradual and based on awareness of services and cost advantages. Organizations...