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The title of this piece is a reference to an ancient Chinese curse, which seems to be very appropriate (geographically, as well as contextually) in the current situation in Asia generally, and in Japan in particular.
I apologise to my Chinese friends if the "Chinese curse" concept is an incorrect one in the English language, but the present circumstances do indeed provoke a good deal of cursing, at least amongst my colleagues, and counterparts, in Japanese banks.
Many column inches have been written about recent events in Asia. from the standpoints of both politics and economics. Although I will start with some thoughts on how this deteriorating situation came about, it is not my intention to add too much to those inches of general reports. Instead, I will focus on the impact on the financing options available to the aerospace sector, not only in Asia, but also around the world.
How did the current situation arise? How has the Asian region moved so quickly from apparently being the "powerhouse" behind growth in the overall World economy, to what looks more like a "basket-case" now?
Over the past 10/15 years, we have become used to hearing of the tremendous growth rates achieved in what were dubbed the Tiger Economies (note that Japan was not included in that grouping, because its growth and development had started much earlier, as the country rebuilt after WW2).
However, for any organisation, of whatever size, it is usually the case that continued rapid growth results in that organisation's internal infrastructure -- physical, emotional, and intellectual - struggling to keep pace.
Eventually, "the wheels come off", and a period of consolidation is then required. This situation is well described by a saying I saw attributed to President Suharto of Indonesia - "the fast-flowing river conceals the rocks on the river-bed". What we have now is the speed of the Asian rivers slowing down, and exposing some of the previously-hidden rocks, which have become very visible.
Emerging trends
It is too early to say exactly how the current situation will eventually play out in Asia, but certain trends are already becoming clear in the context of those financing options, the most important of which are:
capacity reduction in funding markets (including not...