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The illness of Nigerian Pres. Umani Musa Yar'Adua, 59, had, by early January 2010, reached the point where it could no longer be hidden from the Nigerian electorate, and the prospect for a change of leadership became imminent, as forecast exclusively by Defense & Foreign Affairs in early June 2009.
The challenge facing the Nigerian leadership and Constitutional system, however, is that the Vice-President, Goodluck Jonathan, is from the Niger Delta (from oil-producing Bayelsa state), and there is a strong lobby against him taking office as President in the event that Pres. Yar'Adua relinquishes office for health reasons.
Political opposition figures, the media, and other elements of Nigerian governance - including the Armed Forces - no longer accept that the business of government can continue long in this present state. One columnist, on January 10, 2010, in the Sunday Next, said that, as President, if not as a man, Yar'Adua was dead. The same journal, on the same day, noted in another report "Nigeria has effectively entered a post-Yar'Adua administration era, according to impeccable Next sources. Contrary to the much reported news of President Umaru Yar'Adua's improved health, he is, in reality, seriously brain-damaged and unable to recognize anyone including his wife, Turai." Other media reports in Nigeria have said, for some months, that he was, in fact, dead, although the President conducted a vague, three-minute interview with BBC radio on January 12, 2010.
The collapsing and fractious governance situation in Nigeria has been compounded by a major blow to the Administration's credibility which occurred with what has been labeled an "intelligence failure" - and certainly a national image failure - resulting from the arrest of alleged Nigerian al-Qaida terrorist supporter, Umar Abdulfarouk Abdulmutallab, 23, following his reported failed attempt to blow up US Northwest Airlines Flight 253 -...