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Many predictions of the economic and social costs of a modern-day pandemic are based on the effects of the influenza pandemic of 1918. Despite killing 675,000 people in the United States and 40 million worldwide, the influenza of 1918 has been nearly forgotten. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the influenza pandemic of 1918 in the United States, its economic effects, and its implications for a modern-day pandemic. The paper provides a brief historical background as well as detailed influenza mortality statistics for cities and states, including those in the Eighth Federal Reserve District, that account for differences in race, income, and place of residence. Information is obtained from two sources: (i) newspaper articles published during the pandemic and (ii) a survey of economic research on the subject.
(JEL I1, N0, R0)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 2008, 90(2), pp. 75-93.
The possibility of a worldwide influenza pandemic in the near future is of growing concern for many countries around the globe. The World Bank estimates that a global influenza pandemic would cost the world economy $800 billion and kill tens of millions of people (Brahmbhatt, 2005). Researchers at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) calculate that deaths in the United States could reach 207,000 and the initial cost to the economy could approach $166 billion, or roughly 1.5 percent of GDP (Meltzer, Cox, and Fukuda, 1999). The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services paints a more dire pictureup to 1.9 million dead in the United States and initial economic costs near $200 billion (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2005). The long-run costs of a modern-day influenza pandemic are expected to be much greater.
Although researchers and public officials can only speculate on the likelihood of a global influenza pandemic, many of the worst-case scenario predictions for a current pandemic are based on the global influenza pandemic of 1918. That pandemic killed 675,000 people in the United States (nearly 0.8 percent of the 1910 population), a greater number than U.S. troop deaths in World War I (116,516) and World War II (405,399) combined.1 Roughly 40 million people died worldwide from the early spring of 1918 through the late spring of...