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This Note examines whether Ukraine fulfills the legal requirements of NATO membership, as governed by Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty. It argues that Ukraine's accession to NATO remains unlikely during the ongoing war because Ukraine cannot amass unanimous support among Member States: NATO Leaders recognize that the Article 5 obligation would likely prompt direct confrontation between NATO and the Russian Federation. However, Ukraine's membership is possible following the cessation of hostilities. This is because Ukraine's wartime conduct demonstrates that it is ready and willing to contribute to the security of the Alliance. Moreover, Ukraine has made notable progress in the implementation of NATO principles, including interoperability and democratic consolidation. Although post-2014 reforms and a united civil society suggest that Ukraine is on a positive trajectory, Ukraine must sustain this momentum to secure the unanimous support of NATO Member States.
I. INTRODUCTION
As the Russian Federation's full-scale war in Ukraine enters its fourth year, Russian Armed Forces continue to commit war crimes and human rights abuses in Ukraine.1 To deter Russian aggression and safeguard Ukraine's sovereignty, the Ukrainian government requests security guarantees from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO, the Organization, or the Alliance), particularly by a coalition of NATO Member States or through NATO accession.2 While Ukraine's accession to NATO could restore security in Europe, many analysts suggest that it could also provoke direct confrontation between NATO and the Russian Federation.3 Despite these consequential implications, a comprehensive analysis of Ukraine's progress toward NATO accession has not been conducted.4
This Note attempts to address the research gap by examining whether Ukraine fulfills the legal requirements of NATO membership, as governed by Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty (Treaty).5 This Note also attempts to demystify Ukraine's accession process by outlining relevant criteria and discussing recent reforms implemented to achieve compliance. Accordingly, this Note argues that Ukraine's accession to NATO remains unlikely during the war because Ukraine cannot amass unanimous agreement among Member States. However, membership is possible following the cessation of hostilities. This is because, as outlined in Part III, Ukraine has achieved notable progress in the implementation of several membership requirements, including those relating to interoperability, democratic institutions, and the defense sector.
Part II begins with an overview of background information, including...